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Off the Top

We have some changes to the course this year that are worth paying attention to.

…as for the rest of the course, an excerpt from our course preview for the week:

TPC Sawgrass

Located about a mile west of the Atlantic Ocean on the site of the PGA Tour’s official headquarters, TPC Sawgrass contains numerous challenging features. These include narrow fairways lined with marshes and elongated waste bunkers; mounds, hollows, and pot bunkers that are strategically placed to catch even the slightest misplaced shot; water hazards on almost every hole; tall trees (palm, pine and oak) that obstruct shots in many areas on the course; and firm lightning-fast greens.

All of the trademark characteristics of a Pete Dye course are found at TPC Sawgrass. From the railroad ties to the slithering dogleg fairways to strategically placed water and sand, Dye was one of a kind. But at Sawgrass, he took visual deception and the ability to make golfers nervous while standing over their shot to an entirely new level. Dye was a risk-taker in his younger years and a paratrooper during World War II. Similarly, he wanted golfers to feel sweaty palms and butterflies in their stomachs while standing over certain shots. Risk/reward golf was the name of his game. This course, for example, has numerous tee shots where it is highly beneficial for players to hit toward the hazards because it allows for the least obstructed approach into the green. In Dye’s mind, either you take on the risk and hit the correct shot, or you suffer the consequence.

Patrick Cantlay encapsulated Dye’s approach perfectly when he stated, “Dye fools you and challenges you at the same time. I feel like he will show you one side with trouble and you almost have to ignore the big flashy trouble but still hug it, because the worst side will be the bailout side, and once you bail out to that side, then the troubles start mounting. Pete Dye kind of does that all day, and if you have enough guts to hit quality shots all the way around, you can shoot good numbers.”

Measuring out at 7,352 yards, TPC Sawgrass is a shorter, positional, “less than driver” course. Beman instructed designer Pete Dye to build a true test that would not favor one type of player. So Dye did what he does best. He crafted a balanced course that forces strategic positional tee shots and approaches around complex bunkers and numerous water hazards. There are dog-leg holes that turn both ways and overall, the course is routed so that no two consecutive holes play in the same direction. On some holes, players must hit their targets on fairways and greens by shaping the ball in both directions on the very same hole. The course is so equitable and yet full of variance that every single hole has at least an 8% Birdie or Better rate and an 8% Bogey rate.

With so much trouble lurking, the line separating success from complete failure is minuscule. This is a big reason why there is such little correlation to past leaderboards. Overall, many of the top-ranked players have just as many missed cuts over the years as top-10 finishes. As Dye himself said, “The mark of a good golf course is when one player can be going for 63 while six others are struggling for 78.” Those who strategize and think their way around the course, combined with pure ball-striking, will be rewarded with the best chances to score. According to Adam Scott, the course doesn’t play favorites. “We have so many different styles of game, so I think the course is open to so many different guys to have a chance to win,” he said. “There’s more guys in the mix which leaves it open for anyone.”

Since the event moved from May to March back in 2019, the scoring average at TPC Sawgrass has been +0.09 per round. It ranks as the 14th-toughest scoring course on Tour. The two-month date change has had such a dramatic effect on how the course has played that it does not make sense to take much of the pre-2019 results into account. With coastal winds gustier in March, scoring is more random and the course plays longer thanks to the softer fairways.

The course also plays softer due to more precipitation. With it so early in the growing season, the Bermuda grass is still dormant. Thus, the course is overseeded with rye on the fairways and rough. This would typically make the rough much easier to hit out of, especially around the greens where Bermuda rough can be quite tricky. Last year, the rough was lengthened to 3.5″. This year, tournament organizers tacked on another half-inch making it 4″. More penal rough only adds to the difficulty of the course and puts even more pressure on fairway accuracy. Greens are 100% Poa Trivialis and run a very fast 13-14 on the stimpmeter.

With the fifth most bunkers and the highest amount of holes with water danger on Tour, there are plenty of means for wayward shots to be penalized. These, along with coastal winds and fast greens are the course’s main defense. Limiting any damage and scrambling for pars and bogeys are the best ways to stay afloat and keep one’s chances alive. To score low here, players need to either have elite ball-striking rounds or catch fire with their short game.

Betting

Just betting two guys to win. One that should be able to manhandle the course again if he’s finally knocked the rust off and one whos peaking so damn hard, that I’d be upset if I just brushed it aside.

Scottie +550
Mike Kim +7000

And a few placement bets for good measure:

Sepp Straka Top 20 +105
Wyndham Clark Top 20 +180
Michael Kim Top 20 +180
Nick Taylor Top 20 +240
(all with ties)

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Model

This week, we are taking a look at an expert model courtesy of the heart and soul of Betsperts Golf: Ron Klos.

Ron likes to put a lot more inputs into his models, and I will often look at his (and others’) to see what exactly I’m not accounting for or maybe have over or under weighted for the week when I’m looking at course fit. I won’t list all dozen inputs he has (you have to side scroll to see them all), but like myself, it’s heavy on ball striking and has Scottie in the top slot.

Weather

So the weekend looks bad, but we played this game last week and Sunday turned out fairly decent. So, I don’t want to put a ton of stock into a Tuesday prediction of Sunday weather and I certainly won’t be basing any bets on it.

Thursday and Friday seem pretty chill with some heavier winds in the afternoon, but for now they look fairly similar so I’m not sure we’ll have a wave advantage (I don’t believe the trend).

News and Notes

• This is a TEN MINUTE VIDEO, and I normally have the attention span of a goldfish and sometimes can’t even make it through a damn TikTok, but this is pretty cool and worth the time

• Bad news for the big cat, it seems like we aren’t getting any majors out of Tiger this year.

• Good news from the Tuesday presser! This should be some exciting data.

• Also, bad news from the Tuesday presser

• and, finally, checking in on the LIV Tour

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and stay out of the water.

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