Hey, it’s the offseason! sort of.

Certainly not for the folks who use these tournaments to pick up points to get into better fields next year. I’m guessing they can’t be in love with the fact that Scottie Scheffler and most of the rest of the Ryder Cup team are here, making things more difficult, especially for non-American players who can’t even use national pride to rationalize it.

Either way, this is by far the strongest field we may ever see here, and it makes betting this one a tough ask. I will just assume the best player in the world tears apart a short resort course and focus on finding some long shots to place in the positional markets.

A quick look at the course via Ron’s preview article:

Silverado (North)

Located in the heart of California’s Napa Valley wine country, Silverado is a classical, tree-lined resort-style course with a setup that is quite scoreable. The birdie-to-bogey ratio of 1.47 is one of the highest on Tour. Over the past five events here, the course ranks as the 18th easiest annual course, with an average score of -0.97 per round.

While Silverado features some rolling terrain and a handful of holes with elevation changes, it is largely a flat layout. With just two holes bringing water into play and only 53 bunkers, there are limited opportunities for big mistakes. The course’s primary defenses come from its narrow, tree-lined fairways and the severe undulations on several greens.

The course’s relatively modest length also adds to its playability. At under 7,200 yards from the tips, the par-72 layout ranks as the eighth-shortest on the PGA Tour schedule. Its winners’ list reflects that versatility—big hitters like Cameron Champ and Stewart Cink have triumphed here, but more methodical players such as Chez Reavie and Emiliano Grillo have also found success.  

From an agronomy standpoint, Silverado features a unique blend of grass types. The fairways combine Bermuda, Poa annua, and Ryegrass, while the rough is a Bluegrass/Ryegrass mix maintained at roughly three inches. The greens are predominantly West Coast Poa annua—known for their “bumpy” texture—with some bentgrass mixed in.

As one of the shorter courses on Tour, Silverado doesn’t feature a single par 4 over 460 yards. In fact, eight par 4s fall between 375 and 435 yards, giving players ample chances to attack with short irons and wedges—especially as average driving distances continue to climb (291.6 yards last season). All four par 5s are reachable in two shots and collectively yield a “Birdie or Better” rate of 39%. The real defense lies in the par 3s, three of which rank among the four toughest holes on the course, carrying a bogey-or-worse rate of 21%.

Betting

It's a light week for me, considering the best golfer in the world is playing a resort course. I still like a few guys to play well here, it’s just going to be hard to overcome the ten that Keeg’s brought out to play. Normally, a place where a big longshot could get home, I’ll just be betting on one man to play good Drive and Chip golf (and a placement bet).

Outrights!

Justin Thomas +1650

Chan Kim top 20 +600

Bonus Fun One for the BMW

Ryan Fox +11000

Weather

Over the past few years, there has been a slight advantage to playing in the morning, but it’s around 0.4 strokes, so nothing to write home about.

The wind patterns appear to stay pretty consistent throughout the tournament with some chances of showers over the next 24 hours. They should be pretty light with no real chances of heavy storms rolling in. A little chilly in the mornings, but overall, a really nice looking week in Cali.

News and Notes (and a video worth watching)

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and see you in two weeks for the Battle of Long Island.

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