The Sentry

The 2025 PGA season kicks off this week. Let's gamble on it.

Author

Andy Molitor
December 31, 2024

WE’RE BACK!

Not exactly Augusta, but I do very much miss having golf playing in the office all day on Thursdays and Fridays, and I am quite excited to have this gorgeous course on my TV in just two days. I also like the change they made to this to include other top golfers instead of just the winners from the previous year.

This is our first signature event (next up: AT&T), but it appears that most one-and-done aren’t starting quite yet, so the big purse is just a side note for us.

Three Quick Things

  • Over the past five years, Kapalua has ranked as the easiest course on Tour at -3.59 per round.

  • Plenty of top players here doesn’t mean you can’t take long shots. It’s a putting contest; last year’s winner, Chris Kirk, was 125/1

  • The primary defense of the course is the wind. If it isn’t gusty, the spacious fairways, larger greens, and lack of real hazards will have us looking at 30-under par for the winner again.

A look at this week’s track, from Ron Klos’ course preview article:

Plantation Course at Kapalua

Located on the north shore of the Hawaiian island of Maui, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is a unique Par 73 coastal parkland layout that measures 7,596 yards. It is the 11th-longest course in the annual Tour rotation and sits on a spacious tract of mountainous land. From the breathtaking views overlooking Honokahua Bay to the 500-foot elevation difference between its highest and lowest points, the course is a spectacularly scenic place to host a highly competitive event comprised of a majority of the world’s best golfers.

Due to several factors, Plantation has the well-deserved reputation of being one of the lower-scoring courses on Tour relative to par. Since beginning on Tour in 1999, the winning score is typically in the low-to-mid 20s under par. There have been outliers, of course, with Thomas (-14) and Smith’s (-34) victories being separated by 20 strokes. Over the past five years, it has ranked as the easiest course on Tour at -3.59 per round. The last three years have seen scoring taken to another level with an average round playing at a staggering -4.50. While there are plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities, the course still offers a few potential challenges including coastal winds, uneven lies, and expansive tiered greens.

Though it is a parkland course with plenty of trees, they don’t crowd the fairways. While there are no holes that bring any type of water danger into play, there are 93 bunkers (fourth-most on Tour) that litter the course. There are also a few canyons with heavy vegetation and penalty areas to contend with. But even more challenging to golfers this week is the ability to manage the factors mentioned above that could cause trouble – elevation changes, massive greens, and the strength of the wind.

Though located on the coast, it’s the mountains that define Kapalua. The resort’s Plantation Course was built on the slopes of the West Maui Mountains. This terrain creates large undulations throughout the course as golfers progress up and down the elevation changes throughout their round. In fact, the course has the largest amount of elevation changes on Tour. Patrick Reed remarked that all the awkward lies, blind shots, and elevation changes force players to be more engaged and creative in their shot-making throughout the week.

“Fun” is a word that pops up continually in player interviews about the course. Said 2019 winner, Xander Schauffele, “It just kind of fits my eye. Usually, it’s a little windier, you got to sort of do all things in your game correctly. It’s just a lot of fun to play because you’re on these massive hills and a ton of wind and kind of weird breaking putts.” Rickie Fowler, who has four top-6 finishes here in his only starts jumped on the “fun” bandwagon as well by remarking, “This golf course allows you to use your imagination. Obviously with the amount of up and down and side slopes, and in the wind you’ve got to have some imagination on shot shape and hit your windows. So judging that properly is always fun for me.”

Kapalua’s Bermuda rough measures 2.5″ long but poses little threat to golfers as the average proximity to the hole from the thicker grass is only three feet further than from the fairway. The mammoth Bermuda greens at Plantation average 8,700 square feet. Combining the size and slope of the greens with the typical gusty winds makes the course one of the toughest on Tour for proximity to the hole. This, in turn, increases the potential for three putts and bogeys on certain holes.

However, the main defense the course offers is in the form of the prevailing east-by-northeast trade winds which can make certain holes much more difficult and which tend to increase as the afternoon progresses. Players who have more experience in windy conditions, especially those who can control their ball flight will have a definite advantage. These are not light and variable breezes, but gusts often exceeding 25 mph that can wreak havoc on the course.

Betting

Trying to find a good comparison course for this one was a bit odd, but I dug in on the Rabbit Hole and put in a strange combination of easy-scoring conditions and a strong field. The sample wasn’t big, but thankfully, it didn’t make me look stupid since it contained the Sentry.

Going further back, there were some rounds from the CJ Cup and BMW, but the other tournament that was included in the entire sample for all four rounds each year was:

The Scottish Open.

Scotland and Hawaii are both islands. There ends the similarities. But, if you did want to have a wild reason to explain a couple of flier bets. Robert MacIntyre beat Adam Scott by a stroke to win at the Renaissance Club last year (both are in the field this week)

I ended up going with the best course fit plays that I could find a little further down the board. Some very decent putters also bring enough ball-striking prowess to keep the birdie opportunities coming.

My guys for the week:

Sam Burns +2800
Wyndham Clark +4204
Max Greyserman +4850

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Weather

In the past, the weather has been a factor here. Windy conditions cut scoring in half a few years back.

It doesn’t look terrible right now. Windfinder is showing the worst of it being Thursday morning as well, with the gusts reaching the mid to upper teens, but the weekend appears to be very calm. Nothing above 10mph forecasted for Saturday and Sunday.

It appears the golf course is in for another blood bath.

News and Notes

  • The first TGL event is coming up. I’ll probably try to bet on it, and I will have some sort of a recap of how I liked it in the newsletter.

  • Finally, Tiger’s birthday has come and gone, but if you missed the thread, it’s worth revisiting.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and welcome to 2025