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The second and final leg of the Hawaiian swing starts Thursday morning/afternoon and while it’s not a difficult course, it’s not going to look like last week, for those that whined about the low scores.

A bit of trivia after last week: With Hideki’s win, how many men have done what he accomplished, winning BOTH the Sentry and the Sony in their careers? (answer at the end)

Three Quick Things

1. You’re going to hear that the greens are harder to hit here compared to last week. They are, but GIR% here is still around average for a tour event. It’s by no means categorized as difficult.

2. A difference from last week that does matter a ton is the fairway size. Good drive and fairway % will be way down as these landing areas are tighter. It’s not a place where you need to club down consistently, but some holes will demand it.

3. It's not a putting contest like last week, but it will still be vital. Here’s some data from Ron:

Speaking of, here’s an excerpt from Ron’s full course preview for the week:

Waialae CC

Waialae Country Club is a shorter par 70 course measuring 7,044 yards. Tucked away to the east of the sprawling city of Honolulu, the course only has a couple of holes bordering the ocean. Many holes are hundreds of yards inland and are somewhat protected from the trade winds by the palm-tree-lined fairways.

Waialae is a tight, flat, technical, coastal track that tends to favor shorter more accurate hitters who are creative both in their strategy and shot-making skills. While those types have had great success here, bigger hitters have the potential to cut across some of the doglegs and can shorten the course even further. Overall, however, the power game has mostly proven fruitless as bombers who cut corners and end up in the 3-inch Bermuda rough will have to deal with “fliers” jumping out of the thick grass on approach. Because the big hitters do not have an advantage, Waialae does a great job leveling the field.

The routing of the layout is excellent. The course features one of the highest amounts of dogleg holes on Tour. Raynor designed it to not favor one ball-flight type over the other as there is an equal mix of holes that bend in both directions. The variety of tee-to-green routing forces players to think and plot their way around the course.

Depending on recent precipitation, Waialae tends to play fast and firm. While it does have tight tree-lined corridors, the fairways are the 10th widest on Tour at an average of 36 yards across. Nevertheless, because the course typically plays firm and the angles are so tight, hitting fairways is at a premium. Drives landing in the fairway and bouncing into the rough are a regular occurrence. As Charles Howell III said a few years back, “It’s a course where you always have to play your angles and plan your misses.”

Many of the 83 bunkers on the course are very well-positioned and laid out in a well-thought-out and challenging manner. And unlike last week, there is some water danger on the course which comes into play on four holes.

The wind is by far the course’s biggest defense. Winds have been mostly calm over the last handful of years except for 2020 in which Cam Smith won at a score of only 11-under. While scoring can be shaped by the strength of the coastal breezes, when conditions are calmer, there are a ton of birdies out there as it ranks as the 10th-easiest course on Tour. If the wind cooperates, scores should easily be able to push beyond 20-under again. If the wind is blowing like it is forecasted, greens will be difficult to hit. This is one of the reasons course history is so advantageous here because knowing the right spots to miss when the wind does blow presents an edge for those who play here every year.

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Rabbit Hole Data Model

I may end up making one or two more data models for the week if we start to see a good offering of matchup bets soon, but this is what we pieced together today on the research stream.

• T2G on comp courses

• Good Drive %

• Short Game on Bermuda Grass

• Overall proximity from 150-200 yards

• Fairway only proximity from 150-175 yards

It spit out some of the same names I had found using my 2024 model as well, which helped move the betting decisions along for me.

My guys for Honolulu:

Luke Clanton +3414
Austin Eckroat +4104
Ben Griffin +5023
Michael Kim +13500, Top 20 +350
Ben Silverman +20000, Top 20 +550

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Weather

Looking kinda windy here this week. Friday afternoon is possibly a little worse than Thursday for any sort of a wave advantage look.

Sunday seems to be the worst looking with some gusting in the mid-twenties mph or higher as the day goes on. Maybe a chance to fade the final groups who will play their entire fourth rounds in the worst of it.

If the winds are this bad (or worse), it may be worth adjusting a bit with live bets or DFS as we go. As Ryan pointed out today on the Research Live Stream, 2020 was a bit like this. As you can see, the field was way below average on driver usage and also saw a nice drop in Greens in Regulation % (64.5 compared to the 71.6% average of the past four years).

TGL Time

It’s not much, but I did look at the six golfers who are playing tonight in the opening TGL match and made a pick to win.

News and Notes

• The PIP report is out, and a part-time player won!

• LIV schedule is up and out for the 2025 season with the first stop in about a month over in Saudi Arabia.

• I don’t know if this is big news of a nothingburger considering the fight over getting LIV golfers OWGR points. But, a new chairman is coming.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and Aloha

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Trivia Answer: SEVEN. From the PGA media info:

“2022 Sony Open in Hawaii winner Hideki Matsuyama became the seventh player to win both Hawaii events during their career, joining Jim Furyk (1996 Sony, 2001 Sentry), Ernie Els (2003 Sentry, 2003 and 2004 Sony), Vijay Singh (2005 Sony, 2007 Sentry), Zach Johnson (2009 Sony, 2014 Sentry), Justin Thomas (2017 Sentry and 2020 Sentry, 2017 Sony) and Cameron Smith (2020 Sony, 2022 Sentry)”