I’m not going to waste any more time whining about how the playoffs suck, or how their anti-climatic, or how it doesn’t make sense that someone

one of the events and still get to advance. I’m certainly not going to question having two of the three events in miserable heat when we’ve seen all the great golf courses the Northeast has to offer.

Nor will I rail on about the fact that even though we saw the PGA make a smart change to the Tour Championship, the rest of the rules are lame and take away from what could and should be a fun three-week stretch heading into the start of football. I’m just going to keep it positive. That’s the kind of person I am.

Speaking of, I’m positive that Ron has written one of the best course previews this week, and I would like to present to you, an excert from it, to help you on your way:

TPC Southwind

Built on the remnants of a dairy farm, TPC Southwind is a par-70, 7,288-yard tree-lined course that contains undulating narrow zoysia fairways, gnarly 3-inch Bermuda rough, and Bermuda greens. Many players who grew up in the South or who have become used to chipping and putting on Bermuda will be very comfortable here in the humid climate. Players with past success like Daniel Berger repeatedly talk about how comfortable they are in this environment. Much like at East Lake in Georgia, the zoysia grass used on fairways is very beneficial for the course due to the Memphis climate which has both sweltering heat in the summer and cold bursts in the winter.

Over the past five events, the course played an average of -0.93 strokes per round, which puts it right near the middle for Tour difficulty. Since 2004, only one winning score has been outside the -9 to -19 range. While it is a par-70, TPC Southwind is not a short course like Harbour Town or Pebble Beach. There are eight lengthy par-4s, and the numerous doglegs stretch the course even further. The recent course renovation also added 50 yards of length.

TPC Southwind also features numerous lakes, streams, and ponds which add up to 11 holes with water directly in play. In fact, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” on Tour by far. Since 2003, TPC Southwind’s 6,298 balls in the water are the most at any PGA TOUR course during that stretch. Because of all the water danger, three different holes average higher than a 5% double bogey or worse rate.

Said Webb Simpson on the propensity for all the water balls, “You drive it in the fairway. You’re going to have a lot less chances to hit balls in the water. I think these water balls often come from guys who drive it in the rough on holes like 9 or 15, even 18, even 12. There are a lot of holes where in the rough you have a decision to make: Are you going to bring on the water and go for the green or are you going to lay up? It’s really hard to lay up from 150 yards.”

With just two par 5s, scoring chances will be limited. Par 4 scoring will be key as the threat of bogeys will be brought much more into play than has been seen over the past couple of weeks. Overall, there are more holes with a 17% bogey rate (ten) than a 17% birdie rate (six). While the rough at TPC Southwind isn’t overly penal, the unpredictable nature of the Bermuda grass still leads to plenty of bogeys. It becomes a tough test if players are missing fairways and greens—or worse, finding the water. The greens add another layer of difficulty as the third smallest on Tour, often heavily protected by water hazards or clusters of deep greenside bunkers.

TPC Southwind may not feature many standout holes, but its consistent challenge lies in narrow, tree-lined fairways and well-placed hazards—be it bunkers or water—near key landing zones. With birdies at a premium, players must capitalize on the two reachable par 5s, which together yield a birdie or better rate of just 43%. While patience is essential to navigate the course’s many obstacles, success hinges on knowing when to be aggressive—grinding out pars alone won’t be enough to contend.

Key Stats

Top stat for me this week is driving accuracy. It’s not a course where players will be clubbing down as much as we’ve seen in the past few weeks at times, but still a place where you can get in a ton of trouble if you’re missing fairways. It’s a prerequisite to scoring here and will play a big part of my betting and DFS.

Other stuff to use in your models/consider:

• SG: Approach: Accounts for 45% of strokes gained (vs. 35% Tour average); critical due to small greens and penal hazards

• SG: Around the Green/Scrambling (Bermuda): Small greens lead to frequent misses; scrambling from short grass and bunkers is easier than Tour average here but still important.

• SG: Par 4: Eight lengthy par 4s that you’ll need to tame.

• Good Drive % (Bermuda Rough): Most of the top placing players over the last few years gained in this stat, just another way to look at accuracy.

• Bogey Avoidance: Over half the holes have greater than a 15% bogey rate; three holes with >5% double bogey or worse rate. Gotta keep it at 10 and 2 here and avoid the blow ups.

• SG: Putting (Bermuda): Easier-than-average greens reduce putting’s importance, but Bermuda proficiency helps. You could also filter by small greens, as these are the 3rd smallest on tour.

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Can Scared Money Make Money?

I have Scottie Scheffler so far ahead of the field here, I’m doing the unthinkable and just betting into the “without Scheffler” markets this week.

I think on this track, with the small field, his price is correct and maybe even a little short.

Looking for good ball strikers this week, good form doesn’t hurt, willing to overlook some putting if they have soft enough hands around the green. Landed on four names. Best of luck to me (and to you, if you bet any of these).

Outrights (without SS)

Aaron Rai +2800
Sepp Straka +3000
Daniel Berger +3500
Lucas Glover +6500

Berger Top 10 +250
Glover Top 10 +375

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Weather

Pretty warm. Lows in the 70s, highs in the 90s with some pretty high dew points to make it feel closer to 100 at times. Some breezes, but not enough to write home about.

Gold Bond weather.

Since everyone is playing off the 1st tee and they’ll be in twosome, the tee times are quite spread out for a smaller field, but with a lack of afternoon wind, I’m not sure there’s some wave advantage. The data backs this up, with the biggest AM/PM difference in the past few years being around a half stroke.

News and Notes

• This is what Twitter is for. People helping people.

• Brought this up today already on a show, but this is the most level-headed and extremely correct take I’ve seen during the summer flurry of hot RC takes.

• Golf is BACK!

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy the “playoffs”

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Trivia Answer: Aldrich Potgieter, who is also your tour leader in driving distance this year at 327.6 yards.