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The Tour has gotten plenty wrong over the years (go look at the schedule release today), but I do need to applaud them from changing the rules in this one. The starting strokes advantage was simply too much, leaving us with a tournament field of 5-6 guys rather than the 100+ that we crave.

Sure, the best player in the world may not always be rewarded with the big purse, but if they’re the best player in the world, I doubt they’ll miss a rent payment because of it.

Some other fun facts about the Tour Championship before we dive into Ron’s preview of this course:

• Seven Golfers will make their East Lake debut: J.J. Spaun (No. 3), Ben Griffin (No. 7), Maverick McNealy (No. 10), Andrew Novak (No. 15), Harry Hall (No. 26), Jacob Bridgeman (No. 27), Chris Gotterup (No. 29)

• The man who’s won it the most: Rory McIroy with three (2016, 2019, 2022)

• No one has ever won back-to-back, but Scottie’s +150 price tag has that distinction in danger

East Lake

Playing as a par-70 with a distance of 7,440 yards with only two par-5s, East Lake is a brute of a course. It measures as the 6th-longest course in the Tour rotation. Typically, a par-72 layout for members, the 1st and 14th holes are converted from par-5s to long par-4s, which adds to the challenge. Built on gently rolling hills, there are numerous elevation changes and uneven lies. The front and back nines start off playing uphill at the lake. Except for four holes, the routing is east-to-west with holes typically playing either into the wind or downwind.

One of the most consistent themes from players when talking about East Lake is how the course is all right in front of you. There aren’t any doglegs, tricks, or quirks. While it is tree-lined, it is open enough in most directions to view other parts of the course. Along with its length, the course will challenge players in other ways as well. Before fairways were slightly widened last year, it was known for having some of the tightest fairways on Tour. This year, they will average around 30 yards wide.

Water hazards influence play on eight holes, simultaneously enhancing the course’s visual appeal and raising its degree of difficulty. Historically, before 2021, winning scores (excluding the staggered-start format) ranged from –7 to –13. In contrast, the past three years have seen East Lake play noticeably easier, averaging -1.90 strokes to par per round, highlighted by the 2022 event on a softened layout, which ranked as the easiest on record at –2.09.

Based on data since last year’s tournament and the 2023 course changes, players found it comparatively easier to gain strokes off the tee and on the greens, while strokes gained on approach and around the green proved more difficult than the historical averages at East Lake.

Warm-weather grasses dominate the course as the fairways are Zoysia, and the greens and rough are Bermuda turf. This year’s rough length has been increased by one inch, as players who can’t keep the ball straight on their tee shots will have to deal with tricky 3.5″ Bermuda rough. Bermuda at that length is one of the most penal on Tour due to its unpredictability and tendency to wrap around the ball.

As part of one of his most recent renovations, Rees Jones redesigned the greens and bunkers to more closely resemble Ross’s original design. The greens sit elevated above the surrounding bunkers and feature challenging slopes that test players on both approach and putting. When firm, they can become particularly quick, typically rolling between 12.5 and 13 on the Stimpmeter.

Each of the four par-3s measures over 197 yards and has the second-longest average out of any group on Tour. The par-5s are reachable in two shots and, along with the par-3s, provide plenty of risk/reward opportunities. The two par-5s average a combined -0.54 under par are must-birdie holes. It is the par-4s, nine of which are over 440 yards, that make East Lake a brute of a course. Those holes average 4.07, with five of them featuring a bogey or worse rate of at least 18%.

The course itself starts underwhelmingly, with the first four holes being rather nondescript. Once past that early section, the course provides an exciting mix of challenging and easy holes. The last six holes provide a challenging closing stretch. The highlights include the island par-3 15th hole that brings a double bogey into the equation on errant approaches off the tee. The 18th is a long par-5 that usually has the tees moved up on Sunday to entice players to be aggressive on their approach.

Key Stats this Week

Bit of a simple one this week, although none of it matters if Thanos is chipping in like last week.

1. Greens in Regulation (GIR): Basically approach in a simpler way. Recent winners (Scheffler, Hovland) ranking 1st and top finishers consistently in the top 8. Can also take a peek at SG:APP from 200+/Proximity 200+ as there’s plenty of longer 2nd shots here.

2. Total Driving: Combines accuracy and distance, as narrow fairways and long par-4s demand precision and length.

3. Strokes Gained: Par 4: Nine long par-4s here, need to score to keep up with Scheffler.

4. Driving Distance: While accuracy is slightly more important, distance helps on long par-4s and reachable par-5s.

5. Good Drive % (Bermuda Rough): Avoiding the penal 3.5-inch Bermuda rough would help.

6. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda): A hot putter can elevate performance, if you think you’re up to the task of predicting it.

Betting

Scottie’s price is probably right, but with the ceiling of a guy who’s won here three times being just as good, I was tempted enough to bet on Rory at this number.

Also a couple of longer shots who can spike the scoring a bit and have had some nice numbers of late. I wish I could combine Gotterups OTT prowess with Hall’s putting, but it’s against the rules and I’ll just have to bet them separately.

Small field events are tough, but I love going to battle with these three.

Rory McIlroy +879
Harry Hall +6000
Chris Gotterup +7550

Noonan has a handful worth peeking at as well:

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Weather

Chances of afternoon thunder showers each day, with some reasonable temps this weekend. Highs only in the low 80s from Friday on, which is a welcome change from other editions of this event.

Not a ton of wind to be had here, but it’ll still be fairly humid to make it feel a bit hotter than the thermometer is reading.

News and Notes

• I’ll need some time to chew on this before I have any takes; and I will have some takes.

• Speaking of schedules… LFG!

• If you’re going to miss golf next week, you may as well try out a free product that helps you find some edges on the other sports. Free to use (for now), please check it out and give us any feedback you have.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy the time off after this. The Ryder Cup is nigh.

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