The second major of the year is here, and it is at a course the Tour has not seen since the 2018 BMW Championship. Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, has been completely rebuilt by Gil Hanse over the last decade. Narrower fairways, 176 bunkers, four-inch rough, and some nasty Donald Ross greens will try to keep scores in the teens. Course history is thin, and what exists is eight years old and during a damn monsoon.

Scheffler is defending and has finished runner-up three straight times since his last win. Rory is chasing something nobody has done since Nicklaus in 1975 (Masters-PGA double in the same year). Fitzpatrick has three wins this season and fits this course profile as well as anyone in the field.

Before we get into any of that, you need to understand what Aronimink actually demands. Ron went deep on the course this week, and here is what matters most heading into Thursday:

Aronimink

Established in 1896, Aronimink Golf Club purchased 300 acres of rolling terrain outside Philadelphia in 1926 and hired Donald Ross to design a course at the height of his career. Built across a rugged, sprawling piece of farmland, Aronimink embraces the natural contours of the land, resulting in reverse cambers and uneven lies throughout the fairways.

One of the defining characteristics of the routing is how consistently Ross varies the challenge from hole to hole. Few consecutive holes ask for the same type of shot shape, trajectory, or strategy. The course moves players across ridges, into valleys, and along side slopes while constantly changing visual angles through its bunker placement. That variety, combined with Aronimink’s restored Ross green complexes, is a major reason many architects and players consider it one of Ross’s greatest championship routings.

Along with adding over 100 yards to the course from new tee boxes, other changes since the 2018 BMW Championship include fairways pinched in at the landing zones to around 32 yards wide and the rough being grown out to around 3.5-4 inches.

“It’s a classic northeast Donald Ross course,” says Jeff Kiddie, PGA, who had been the Head Professional at Aronimink for the last 17 years. “If you look at players who have won here – Gary Player, Justin Rose (2010 AT&T National) and Keegan Bradley – they always seem to be a well-rounded player,” Kiddie says. “They’re not the longest, but they’re long enough. They’re really good iron players and streaky putters.”

Weather will play a huge role in how the course plays this week. “We’d like it to play fast and firm,” explains Kiddie, “but that won’t be up to us.” With cooler conditions expected during the opening rounds and rain forecast for Wednesday evening, the course could play soft and receptive. If that happens, scoring may push past 15-under par and resemble the favorable scoring conditions seen during the rain soaked 2018 BMW Championship….

Model

I sometimes struggle with modeling places we haven’t seen in a while or that have gone through heavy changes, and for some reason, every iteration of what I put together this week hates Rory (I understand that he’s elite). That said, I tried to find the stats and data that would help separate who can succeed here.

My model inputs for the week:

• SG: Approach (weighted toward longer courses and tough scoring conditions)

• Par 4 scoring in difficult conditions

• Driving accuracy via distance from fairway edge

• Wedge game (scoring opportunities on the front nine)

• 3-putt avoidance (tiered greens, short birdie looks)

• SG: Total past 12 months in tough fields (anchor stat)

Be sure to check out all the other expert models and build your own this week as well.

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Betting

Very close last week at both tournaments, and again, I’m happy with the process when I have someone near the top giving me some Sunday sweats every week. A bigger card this week for the major, with some matchups as well, given the bigger offerings for major week. Dancing with those who brought me, for the most part, as the form and fit seem just fine for another week.

Outrights

Cam Young +1261
M. Fitzpatrick +2751
Morikawa +5051
Spaun +7107
Henley +7451
Straka +9000

72-hole matchups

Young > Scheffler +190

Spaun -1.5 > Hideki -110

Henley > Cantlay +107

Berger > Theegala -110

Matt Fitzpatrick > Xander +122

How to Watch

Television

Thursday: 12 p.m. – 7 p.m. on ESPN, 7 p.m.-8 p.m. on ESPN2

Friday: 12 p.m. - 8 p.m. on ESPN

Saturday: 10 a.m. – 1 p.m. on ESPN; 1 p.m. – 7 p.m on CBS

Sunday: 10 a.m. – 1 p.m. on ESPN; 1 p.m. – 7 p.m on CBS

Streaming

Thursday: 6:45 a.m.-8 p.m. on ESPN+

Friday: 6:45 a.m.-8 p.m. on ESPN+

Saturday: 8 a.m.-7 p.m. on ESPN+; CBS Broadcast on Paramount+ from 1 p.m-7 p.m.

Sunday: 8 a.m.-7 p.m. on ESPN+; CBS Broadcast on Paramount+ from 1 p.m-7 p.m.

Weather

Going to be a wet start to the week with some showers softening things up to start. Things should start to bake out a bit as the week goes on, with warmer, drier conditions most likely from Friday onward. Maybe a nice opportunity to find some guys who can throw some darts when the greens are receptive and bet them for FRL.

News and Notes

INJURY ALERT! These types of things are usually overblown, but this is a painful blister hampering one of the favorites and deserves some attention, I suppose.

Two things I love. Hypotheticals and match play.

I wasn’t likely to bet him at his price anyway, but I never love a guy trying to figure out what’s going into the bag this late in the game.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and please take advantage of our partnership with NoVig before it’s over!

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