Back-to-back weeks in Mexico, and back-to-back weeks on Paspalum. If you were hoping this course would put up more of a fight than Vidanta, then you’d better start praying for some more damn wind.

The last three winners at El Cardonal finished 27, 24, and 29 under, including last year’s 259 from Ben Griffin (tourney record)

The field is thinner than last week as well, but still some fun names and younger golfers, which is what the fall is all about! .

Griffin and Ryan Gerard are co-favorites at roughly +1400, Ben James and Jackson Koivun are right behind them, and then it drops off fast. In doing some research over the course of the fall, I’m finding that weak fields are where recent form carries the most weight, so that's where I'm starting this week.

Be sure to click into Ron's full preview this week too.

El Cardonal at Diamante

El Cardonal was the first Tiger Woods design to open, back in December 2014. It sits inside the Diamante community in Cabo San Lucas and takes its name from the ranch that used to occupy the land. Woods built it with architect Beau Welling. The higher holes wind through natural arroyos with big views of the Pacific, and the lowest few run through the same dunes as Davis Love III's Dunes Course next door.

Woods borrowed from some of his favorite old-style California courses, and you can see it in the wide fairways, the traditional bunkering, and the green fronts he left open so you can bounce the ball on. In his words, "I designed El Cardonal at Diamante to make you think." The tour pros haven't done much thinking here. They've just made birdies.

This is year four for the tour at El Cardonal, after the event moved over from El Camaleon at Mayakoba in 2023. It plays as a par 72 at 7,452 yards, and all four par 5s (1, 6, 14, and 18) played well under par last year. The field averaged about 68.9 for the week, roughly three under, and only two holes played over par, the long par 4 4th and 15th.

There's barely any rough, just sandy waste areas if you really spray it, so driving distance hasn't separated anyone here. The greens are big paspalum surfaces, the same grass as last week at Vidanta, which means approach play and putting decide this thing. Anybody who putted well on paspalum last week is worth a second look.

Data Model

As mentioned, I stuck with overall form coming in this week, using just the past three months, then looked at the normal rolling 12 months of data for a couple of second-shot metrics (SG: APP and overall proximity from 150-200 yards out).

I also added some putting since we’re gonna need it to get to -28 or whatever, plus another scoring metric: Birdies or Better from the Fairway. I did not add a lot of filters since I was fine looking at the whole picture of how they played, even in tougher conditions, and while it’d be nice to see who’s the best putter on Paspalum, that’s a tiny sample size.

Betting

Rough week at Vidanta. Clark and Salinda both missed the cut, and Shipley hung around for a T16 that doesn't pay a dime on an outright. Congrats to Andrew Novak, I guess.

Form, Fit, Function this week. Five guys who fit the bill for either playing well this fall so far, or matching up to the skills that have translated to high finishes here over the past three years (plus the price had to be ok):

Kris Ventura +5390
Chris Kirk +5000
Stephan Jaeger +7815
Denny McCarthy +8079
Trace Crowe +8274

Want the tools behind the card for free? If you're new to ReBet, make a first deposit of $10 or more with code BSG. You get a 100% deposit match up to $100, and we'll send you a free Betsperts Golf subscription, the same Rabbit Hole data I build the model with. Your code shows up by email within 72 hours.

We (me) went over our best bets and sleepers for the WWT in our preview show on YouTube as well:

How to Watch

Television

• Thursday, November 5: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

• Friday, November 6: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

• Saturday, November 7: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

• Sunday, November 8: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel)

Streaming

• Thursday, November 5: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com)

• Friday, November 6: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com)

• Saturday, November 7: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com)

• Sunday, November 8: 3 pm - 6 pm (Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com)

Golf Channel has the only live TV coverage of all four rounds, and the Golf Channel app and golfchannel.com stream it live. There is no NBC or CBS window this week, so there is no Peacock or Paramount+ simulcast.

All times ET.

Weather

Starting with a nice northwest breeze of 8 to 15 mph and gusts in the 20s followed by a windier afternoon. Friday is the windiest day, with the afternoon wave taking the worst of it, with gusts to 31.

The weekend gets a bit calmer, with Sunday's wind dropping to 9 mph or less, and the only real threat is a ~25 percent shower chance late Sunday, so expect another low-scoring finish with little chance of a weather delay.

Want it round by round? The full forecast is on the site.

News and Notes

Some extra thoughts from Ron this week on what matters in Cabo (and some peeks into 2027 updates/upgrades to the site):

My opinion: just let Rahm back; I don’t care. I just want the best guys playing every week (I do understand that PGA loyalists on tour would be VERY mad though)

Good Good Open update:

Griffin's trying to go back-to-back at El Cardonal, so we dug into whether his price is actually worth chasing.

Six million on the line this week, and the winner walks away with $1.08 million. Here's the full payout.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy Cabo.

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