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Onward and upward to the playoffs after just four more rounds of golf.

I’m not going to bother looking at who’s on the cutline for qualifying and try to use that as some sort of betting angle. I will assume if you showed up to play four rounds of miserable swamp-ass golf in this humidity, you’re here to compete. (we did tweet about it if you want to know what guys need to get in)

I’m not indifferent to the plight of the middle-of-the-pack golfer though!

I wouldn’t hate a story developing on Sunday of someone way down the rankings who could get in to next week’s field with a win. Outside of having an outright bet in the mix, those are some of the best ways to elevate Sunday viewing.

A look at a bit of an underrated course from Ron’s preview article on the site.

Sedgefield

Sedgefield Country Club is widely regarded as a classic positional course, playing slightly shorter than the average PGA Tour venue. A par 70 stretching 7,131 yards, it places a premium on precision over power. The fairways are heavily tree-lined, and the course winds through a rolling, wooded landscape that’s quintessentially Carolina in character. Nestled just southeast of Greensboro in the Piedmont region of North Carolina, Sedgefield’s routing makes full use of the undulating terrain, rewarding shot-shaping and smart angles into the small, firm Champion Bermuda greens.

The course features wall-to-wall Bermudagrass, from tee to green, creating a consistent—but often unpredictable—playing surface. The greens are average in size and typically run between 12.5 and 13 on the Stimpmeter, making them among the faster Bermuda surfaces on Tour. While the rough measures just 2.5 inches, the nature of Bermuda makes even that modest length deceptively penal. Flyers, jumpers, and inconsistent lies are all in play, making approach shots from the rough a significant challenge, especially into elevated or tucked pin locations.

Sedgefield places a premium on precision and angles, demanding players position their tee shots on the correct side of the fairway to set up ideal lines into its subtle, sloping green complexes. True to Donald Ross’s design philosophy, the course uses the natural topography to dictate both the routing and the strategic decisions players must make. Ross believed the land should guide how a hole is played—and Sedgefield reflects that ethos with greens that punish poor angles and reward thoughtful positioning. Success here often comes down to being strategically aggressive—those who take calculated risks and execute well will find plenty of birdie chances, while those out of position are left scrambling to save par.

The visual challenges that Ross provides throughout the course are a perfect illustration of this. On the second hole tee, for example, there are numerous bunkers that appear to surround the fairway landing zones, yet they are actually much further back than anticipated. Numerous holes with doglegs also force players into decisions to either attack the dogleg or lay up with a shorter club.

Even with only two par 5s in play, conditions are typically scoring-friendly at Sedgefield. Seven of the past nine years the winning score has been at least 20-under. Over the past five events, the course has played to an average of -0.93 per round, making it the 18th easiest track in the Tour rotation. There are only six holes that average over par. When winds are down and conditions are soft, low scores are in play, especially if someone catches fire with the putter as evidenced by Brandt Snedeker‘s first-round 59 back in 2018.

Sedgefield’s primary defenses come in three forms: the sticky Bermudagrass rough, the undulating and well-protected green complexes, and a series of strategically placed fairway bunkers that penalize imprecise tee shots. While not overly long, the course gains its bite from precision-based challenges and subtle architectural nuances. The routing adds another layer of difficulty, especially when the wind picks up—players tee off in nearly every direction throughout the round, which complicates distance control and club selection as they constantly recalculate shifting wind angles. Water is present on six holes, but it rarely plays a major role outside of a few tee shots and approach angles—making it more of a background hazard than a dominant threat.

The fairway bunkers are the toughest on Tour from which to reach the green in regulation. The average GIR rate on Tour courses from fairway bunkers is 48%. Over the past five years at Sedgefield, it has been only 24%.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT!

We made an acquisition this week. More to come in regards to this as we move into next season, but many exciting additions on the horizon including DP World Tour data, an increased focus on DFS and already—an electric new partnership with Pat Mayo!

Key Stats For the Week

• Driving Accuracy:

  • Critical due to narrow fairways and penal rough. “Distance From Edge of Fairway” and “Good Drive %” are top metrics. Driver usage is low and many past winners have ranked fairly highly in accuracy. Not a bad week to throw this filter on in the when digging into past data:

• Approach Play:

  • Sedgefield is the easiest course on Tour for SG: Approach and GIR%, but it’s still nice to have some golfers who can throw darts and score. Proximity can be a flawed stat at times, but I feels it’s a bit more useful when we’re at a track where nearly everyone is finding the greens.

• Short Game and Putting:

  • It’s still putting, which is harder to use as paredictive stat, but unlike last week, these greens can be a bit tricky. Bermuda greens are fast and undulating, with sharp ridges and tricky pin placements. SG: Putting (Bermuda), 3-Putt Avoidance, and Par-4 Birdie-or-Better % are crucial.

  • Scrambling from Bermuda rough is tough (~40% success rate). SG: Around-the-Green (ARG) on Bermuda is key. Greens offer creative shot options (flop shots, bump-and-runs). Again, this isn’t something I would weight heavily, but it could be a nice stat to use when you’re breaking some ties with similar players on your betting card or DFS player pool.

• Comp Course History:

  • Strong correlation with performance at Harbour Town, Waialae, Sea Island, and other short, positional Bermuda courses.

As always, you can check out my model at BetspertsGolf.com (along with many others)

Betting

Didn’t get a winner at the 3M, but did get a sunburn and had some guys in the mix to make a move down the stretch.

Betting the shorter price on Brenden Valdes for top 20 that paid ties in full turned out to be a lucky move as he ended in a five-way tie for 20th. 10/1 on that and +350 on the top 40 takes the sting out of Rico Hoey not living up to his full potential once again….

But, on to this week, where I’m hedging my bets a bit with top 20 bets on four guys I love that happen to be way down the board (plus I got a taste for it after the 3M).

Outrights and Placements

Keegan Bradley +2776
Jackson Koivun +7500, Top 20 +275
Rico Hoey +7623, Top 20 +290
Alex Smalley +8000, Top 20 +275
Adam Svensson +12500, Top 20 +350

plus a single FRL bet on Lee Hodges at 125/1 (he modeled well)

Noonan has an even bigger card of bombs, longshots, darts, and prayers:

Are you interested in advertising with us? We’d love to connect.

Weather

Hot, Humid, Rainy, Sticky. It’s still a couple days off, but with high chances of storms for the first two rounds, it’s going to be damn near impossible to guess as to what sort of wave advantage may develop. The weekend looks windier, but we’ll also have to check that out a bit closer to Saturday on the windfinder.

News and Notes

• Bad weather again, do we see another Monday Finish?!

• New: Business News Section. (good for L.A.B. though, that’s a nice payday)

• I can’t imagine how far past the flag my ball would have landed, let alone stopped rolling.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and GET READY FOR THE PLAYOFFS!

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Trivia Answer: Sam Snead! Back then it was of course just called the Greater Greensboro Open, though.