I enjoy my team play in the fall versus the Europeans but, if we’re being honest with ourselves, maybe that’s what this week is. Rory and Shane are prohibitive favorites and any bets you’re making aren’t that far off of what you patriotic types will be doing at Bethpage this fall: wagering money against the best golfer on the planet.

As a noted Rory-disliker, it pains me to write that, but with Scottie having lost a couple of mph off his fastball, I don’t think we can deny where the diminutive Irishman sits in the current hierarchy right now. He won the two best tournaments so far this year, and Scheffler remains trophyless in ‘25. Rory is #1 with a bullet until Scottie outdoes him at a tournament that matters. He’ll have his chance in a few weeks.

I do think the price this week is fair, but that doesn’t mean I won’t take some shots down the board on a birdie-fest team event where some lightning could be caught in a proverbial bottle.

For those that need a little catching up, an excerpt from Ron’s course preview article:

TPC Louisiana

Located just south of the Mississippi River in the New Orleans suburb of Avondale, TPC Louisiana is a par-72 course that stretches 7,425 yards. While the Zurich Classic has been a part of the PGA Tour’s annual rotation since 1958, TPC Louisiana became its current host in 2005. When it was a singles event up through 2016, past winners of the individual competition included Brian Stuard, Justin Rose, Billy Horschel, and Bubba Watson. In 2022, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele set the team-play scoring record at 29-under par. In 2023, Davis Riley and Nick Hardy topped it, reaching 30-under. Last year, Irish countrymen McIlroy and Lowry won in a playoff at 25-under.

Opened in 2004, the course was designed by world-famous architect Pete Dye in consultation with former players Steve Elkington and Kelly Gibson. Built on a 250-acre tract of drained cypress swampland, it is a flat course with a base of pumped river sand. Dye reimagined this wetland environment with trees, lakes, mounds, and strategically placed waste areas. With 106 bunkers and seven holes with water in play, there are plenty of danger areas for players to be wary of. Cypress and pine trees fill the course, giving it a scenic feel.

Fairways and rough are bermudagrass while the greens are TifEagle bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis. Greens are smaller than average at 5,225 sq. ft. and run at an average of 12 on the stimpmeter. The rough is average length at 2″ and is non-penal.

Each of the par-5s is a great birdie opportunity, with at least three of them easily reachable in two shots. The par-4s are on both ends of the length spectrum. Four measure over 475 yards while five measure less than 405 yards, including the drivable 16th hole. Each of the four par-3s measures over 200 yards and represents three of the six toughest holes on the course.

Dye created a “thinking man’s course” that demands precision around the water hazards and bunkers. Many holes, such as the par-4 16th, present a risk/reward option. It challenges players to see how much they are willing to risk to have a better scoring opportunity. It’s a very scoreable course as evidenced by the number of birdies the last few years with winning scores approaching -30.

Betting

Since I don’t have a model this week, I’ll go a bit more in-depth on the bets I did make this week. A lot of looking at ball-striking, short game, GIR% and, Par 5 accumen.

Rico Hoey and Sam Ryder 56/1

Despite missing the cut last year, they looked pretty solid at times in four-ball, and I think Hoey’s ball striking and approach are in an even better spot coming in this season. Hoey, ranked 25th in Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP) and 5th in Greens in Regulation (GIR), is an elite ball-striker whose decent driving distance and elite SG:OTT numbers suit the course’s long par-5s and extended approaches. TPC Louisiana, at 7,425 yards, rewards players who can consistently hit greens, and Rico Hoey hits greens.

Sam Ryder complements Hoey with exceptional short-game skills, ranking 3rd in SG: Putting and 20th in one-putt percentage. Ryder put together a couple of very nice rounds in 2023 with Doc Redman, and with the pairing, should be able to find the 60s again all four days. Ryder may not be as strong off the tee, but he’s been a strong enough player with his irons to maintain some decent form, with a couple of top 20s and no missed cuts in 2025.

Alex Smalley and Joseph Bramlett 65/1

Alex Smalley and Joseph Bramlett offer a dynamic pairing with power off the tee and underrated short-game skills. Smalley isn’t going to wow you with anything but everything ball-striking is “good enough” with a 302.1-yard driving distance (61st), ranks 33rd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 41st in SG: Approach. He’s been on a bit of a rough patch of late, but strung together a pretty solid month starting in late February, culminating with a top 20 at the Players.

Joseph Bramlett, a long enough hitter at 306.4 yards (43rd), ranks 29th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 18th in par-5 scoring (4.12 average). TPC Louisiana’s four par-5s, where winners average 3.88 strokes, play to his strengths. Bramlett wasn’t here last year, but in 2023, he put together a solid first three rounds to be in the mix before a Sunday 72 left him and partner Brandon Wu with a T26. He’s a solid scrambler, but possibly putts with his eyes closed based on the stats. Going to need to look into that going forward.

Together, Smalley and Bramlett’s power generates birdie chances, with a combined 33.7% birdie-or-better rate on par-5s this season, 4.1% above the Tour average.

Beau Hossler and Andrew Putnam 92/1

Hossler has some nice experience here with Wyndham Clark, getting in the mix a bit with him in 2023 before a Sunday 71 left them in third place.

I like this pairing quite a bit, considering Putnam’s short game and Hossler’s experience here. When he does well (like last year at the Shriners), he gains a ton on approach and also has one of the better short games on tour, ranking 1st in the this field in SG:ARG over the past 12 months. Putnum’s short to medium approach and wedge play and his form over the fall events pair nicely with Hossler, who can bring up his OTT and BS play quite a bit here on a track where we’ll see some clubbing down.

Weather

It seems nice enough this week, although the course is getting some rain today and should see some small chances throughout the week, likely keeping it soft and putting -30 in play yet again.

Thursday and Friday look fairly similar in terms of wind, with some 10+ mph and 15+ mph gusts later in both days, likely keeping the wave splits close to each other.

News and Notes

• I’ve been concerned about Cam for a long time now

• Just another way to show the gap between Tiger and his “peers”

• Quiz (I do not have the answer)

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and here’s hoping Rory’s hungover.

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