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Not a ton of fanfare for this one around the space, despite being the “season finale”. I think the biggest reason that this one is met with some distaste (aside from the NFL lightly knocking) is the fact that it takes away the best part of a golf tournament: the unlikely underdog. With the minuscule field and staggered scoring, there just aren’t many people who can actually win this week. In fact, that number is likely in the single digits.

I suppose this is true in any major sports playoff system, but all the best stories in sports seem to involve some plucky upstart that finds “it” when it matters and makes a serious run at unlikely glory. This feels more like starting the Lake Placid hockey semifinal by spotting the USSR a 5-0 lead before the puck is even dropped.

Couple quick notes:

• Congrats to Matthieu Pavon, the only PGA rookie to advance this far (4 qualified for the playoffs)

• Scottie winning would mean his 7th victory of the season, not done since 2007 (you know who)

• Keegan, Adam Scott, Tommy Fleetwood, and Chris Kirk played their way in last week after starting the week 50th, 41st, 31st, and 32nd in the standings, respectively.

• If you believe this is Xander’s year to get all the monkeys off his back, he’s finished 2nd here three times and can be had at around +250

• The purse is massive. The winner gets $25 milly of the $100 Million bonus purse.

Aside from my ennui surrounding the format, this is going to be a bit of a challenge to handicap course fit.

The course essentially has been completely rebuilt, the front and back flipped, and one of the holes swapped from a long four to a short five, so we’re going in a little blind here. This isn’t like small refurbishing that add a half dozen bunkers and fix the edge of the greens, this was an overhaul that started as soon as last year wrapped up. So, Ron has info from previous years in his article for the week, with the caveat that other than the agronomy, not a ton is the same. Here’s a snippet detailing the changes:

East Lake

As East Lake approaches its 120th year, architect Andrew Green was brought in to do a complete restoration of the course. The goal was to recapture the feel of the golden age of East Lake and to return the course back to a version that better embodied the design Donald Ross left behind. Since the final putt in last year’s TOUR Championship, not a single round of golf has been played here. The course has been remade from the roots up – along with removing hundreds of trees, every square inch of turf has been replaced, and every green has been redesigned.

When the 30 golfers arrive on site, East Lake will look completely different for those who have played it previously. “Nothing is the same, not a single golf shot on the property,” said Green. After doing a deep dive into the history of the course, Green relied on a rare aerial photo from 1949 as his blueprint. How the changes will affect scoring will be determined this week.

Greens are now planted with TifEagle bermuda (replacing Mini-Verde) and sit lower and are larger. They also feature expanded perimeter options for new hole locations. In addition to refurbished bunkers and greens, Green recontoured the fairways to create more movement and slide. In dry conditions, they’ll run faster with the switch to Zorro Zoysia. Tees have also been adjusted to emphasize more shot shaping. The yardage has increased to 7,455 yards (from 7,346), and the par is now 71 versus 70 because the downhill 14th will be played as a par 5

“I don’t have a real sense whether there will be lower or higher numbers shot,” Green said. “I will feel it’s a success if we see a variety of shots played by the champion,” he said. “Not only different clubs off the tees, but around the greens being able to get up and down from not only the traditional heavy Bermuda grass rough but also the (new) short grass areas. The bunkers aren’t nearly as deep as they were before but I still think there is a lot of challenge there.

Betting

I really think this is about as top-heavy of a top two as we have had here, and it’s incredibly hard to bet against Xander and Scottie with a head start.

So I won’t

I built a quick “Last 18 Months driving accuracy model,” on the Rabbit Hole and it confirmed some of the guys I had looked at betting this morning when I talked to Noonan on the podcast anyway.

So, as much as it pains me, I’ll make a few bets on the Lowest Gross Score. Every book lists this a little differently, it seems, but it’s often labeled as “without starting strokes.” Looking for the lowest score over 72 holes, not necessarily the winner. Small bets on a few guys

Tommy Fleetwood +2000
Russell Henley +3000
Aaron Rai +5450

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Weather

Cooling down as we go, but similar to Memphis, it’s gonna be sweltering. It’s August in the south.

Same as last week, a small field/tight group of tee times negates any wave advantage, and it doesn’t appear like we’ll get much in the way of wind, either.

Odds and Ends to End the Season

I’d need more than seven.

Graphic of the week (lifelong BC Golf fan here)

We talked some President’s cup on the show this morning. It’s not the Ryder Cup, but still pretty pumped to the U.S. dumptruck the International team.

Finally, a fun little read. I could be talked into more sports adopting a codified system for the HOF.

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