Always a bit of a letdown after a major, but I think I prefer having a “normal” event like this rather than making players decide on skipping a signature event or not. It’s not like I won’t bet/watch this just because of the purse size and the field.

The obvious first step this week for betting/DFS is figuring out what to do with Scottie. I don’t know the correct answer, but looking at my numbers, the pricing, and what he did last year here, he’s probably fairly projected by the market. You’ll have to do your own soul searching on how to deal with him. I’m taking a bit of a hybrid approach.

A look at the course, from Ron Klos’ preview piece (read the whole thing for more info on the renovations):

TPC Craig Ranch

Featuring gently rolling hills, mature woods, and the ever-present Rowlett Creek, which crisscrosses the course 14 different times, TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that now plays at 7,385 yards, but with new tee boxes, it now has even more flexibility to extend or shrink its length. In the first two years here, it played as a par 72. Attempting to make the course less scoreable, in 2023, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and turned into a par 4 instead of a par 5. Designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, it has sprawling fairways (now the 12th widest on Tour), few hazards, and benign, flat greens.

Since moving to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, this tournament has been the definition of a birdie-fest. Overall, the course has played as one of the easiest on Tour at -1.93 per round. It put up such little defense that it had an average of only five holes over par, and it had the highest birdie-to-bogey ratio at 2.2. TPC Craig Ranch is a scorer’s paradise that will come down to ball striking and a putting contest on the greens.

The course simply does not present many opportunities for players to get themselves into trouble. Although Rowlett Creek winds through several holes, it rarely comes into play unless a tee shot is severely offline. Outside of occasional penalty areas, the primary defense tends to be the unpredictable Texas wind, which can quickly change club selection and scoring conditions when gusts pick up across the exposed property.

From the overall routing to the bunker placement and green complexes, TPC Craig Ranch has long been viewed as one of the more straightforward and less strategic layouts on the PGA Tour schedule. Designer Tom Weiskopf was known for creating visually clean courses that often emphasized execution over architectural nuance, and Craig Ranch largely follows that blueprint. Outside of a few isolated moments, the course lacks many standout or strategically memorable holes, with the drivable par 4 14th serving as the clearest exception.

Weiskopf frequently incorporated at least one drivable par 4 into his designs, and the 14th perfectly reflects that philosophy. Playing around 340 yards during certain rounds, the hole asks players to decide whether to challenge a downhill tee shot guarded by water down the left side and several bunkers surrounding the green. While driving the putting surface is far from routine, the risk reward nature of the hole consistently creates volatility and excitement. Through the first four editions of the tournament at Craig Ranch, the 14th has produced a birdie or better rate of roughly 41 percent.

The course itself is split into two distinct settings….

Model

I could have just thrown a heavy dose of current form and gotten Scottie at the top with some of the other bigger names here right after him, but I ended up digging in a bit on what was predictive here last year for low scores and tried to get a bit more granular.

Inputs I used this week:

• Scoring opportunities inside 15 feet %

• SG: Putting (bentgrass)

• SG: OTT

• Bogey avoidance (renovated layout)

• Birdie rate

Want to dive into official PGA data and build your own models? Find out how you can get a whole year for just $5!

Betting

Overall, it’s been a good year, but man, did I get my teeth kicked in by Aronimink. Still, I’m happy with the process as a whole and found some names that I like on this course based on how they fit and/or how they’re playing.

I did bet them all straight up, but for half the amount. The other half went into the “without Scheffler” markets for the same five golfers, odds in parentheses. I’d love for Scheffler to scuffle a bit on the greens and see one of my guys take it, but at the same time, I understand just how far ahead of the field he is, and I’d kick myself if we got a Springer runner-up this week with nothing to show for it.

Hisatsune +4500 (+3000)
R. Hojgaard +6000 (+4500)
Meissner +7402 (+5500)
Ghim +10556 (+6500)
Springer +21562 (+12500)

Noonan also took some shots down the board this week:

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How to Watch

Television

Thursday: 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. on the Golf Channel

Friday: 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. on the Golf Channel

Saturday: 1 p.m. - 3 p.m. on the Golf Channel, 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. on CBS

Sunday: 1 p.m. - 3 p.m. on the Golf Channel, 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. on CBS

Streaming

Thursday: 7:45 a.m. – 7 p.m. on ESPN+

Friday: 7:45 a.m. – 7 p.m. on ESPN+

Saturday: 8 a.m. – 6 p.m. on ESPN+; CBS coverage on Paramount+

Sunday: 8 a.m. – 6 p.m. on ESPN+; CBS coverage on Paramount+

Weather

Looking a little rough to start the week, with a high chance of storms on Thursday. Some afternoon winds as well, but with a full field and possible delays, I’m not sure that making some sort of wave advantage decision is a smart plan this week.

News and Notes

Impressive as hell

My eyes instantly went to the bottom just to see how bad the weekends have been for some guys. Wild 32 stroke spread here

LIV update (I suppose this isn’t surprising)

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and congrats to Scottie.

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