Just an elite Sunday of golf.

It was everything a major should be: big stars fighting each other and the course down the stretch. It made for an extremely enjoyable back nine, and as a Bryson backer, obviously, I was able to stomach Rory’s shaky putting on the final few holes. The up-and-down from the bunker was nails, and overall, I think it was the best tournament of the year.

I'm not crazy about putting a signature event this week, but I don’t make the schedule, and this is an enjoyable course to watch, so I’ll just cram it. CBS has coverage this week, which is a plus.

Betting

Roller coaster since the hot start, but this week’s newsletter pick was, no doubt, lead-pipe-lock. DJ missed the cut by a bunch, and Henley ended in the top ten. Russell Henley > Dustin Johnson -130 💰

YTD: 12-10-1, +1.06u

This Week’s Matchup: Adam Scott > Harris English -105 (DK)

I have Scott rated higher while also getting his results with more sustainable ball-striking results rather than English’s spike-putting weeks. I hate that no matter what, we’ll be grinding this for 72, but I like the better approach player to shine over a bigger sample and make Adam Scott about a -120 favorite.

…and now a peek at the course with an excerpt from the best course preview in the industry, from Ron Klos:

TPC River Highlands

Situated about 120 miles northeast of New York City, and around 30 miles from the Atlantic coast, TPC River Highlands is located just outside of Hartford in the town of Cromwell, Connecticut. Beautifully carved into slightly rolling terrain the course gets its name from being situated on a bluff high above the Connecticut River. It meanders over 148 acres with an assortment of trees framing its gently rolling fairways.

It is a par-70 course that is the 3rd shortest on Tour at only 6,835 yards. Immaculately maintained, it has numerous subtleties that add to the strategy and challenge of the layout. The routing of the holes demands certain shot types and shapes. This type of course and design has allowed for a variety of champions over the years. Past winners include bombers and shorter fairway finders, Tour veterans and course “first-timers”, and even a blend of favorites and longshots. Any style of play can have success at TPC River Highlands which is one of the reasons so many high-quality players return year after year.

The agronomy for this week features 4-plus inch Bluegrass/Fescue rough and a Bentgrass/Poa annua mixture on the greens and fairways. Numerous lakes and ponds add to the course’s beauty although only five holes have water in play. In Pete Dye fashion, the course (mostly on the back nine) does entice players into taking shots over some of these water hazards. The penal rough stands out as the course’s best defense. Players who end up off the fairway and in trouble will be forced to layup instead of going for the green with their approach shot.

While TPC River Highlands does yield low winning scores (15-under par average the last 12 events) and birdies are there to be taken, it still presents numerous challenges and won’t give anything away. A perfect example of this occurred in 2018. In the first round, Jordan Spieth shot a 63 and then followed it up with a 73 the very next day. Though the course changes should make scoring tougher this year, the average overall score for the last five events is 0.86 shots under par which places it in the middle of the pack on Tour. Good shots have always been rewarded as this is the course where Jim Furyk shot a Tour record low 58 in 2016. Patrick Cantlay (2011) and Mackenzie Hughes (2020) also both shot 60.

Taking advantage of birdie opportunities, staying out of the rough, and minimizing mistakes is the name of the game at TPC River Highlands. Shot-making and creativity are two other traits that matter here. Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth have a combined four titles at this track and they epitomize those qualities.

Model

Tried to go over it a bit on the show yesterday, but sharing my screen somehow turned my computer into a smoking mess. I still landed on a guy I was betting regardless in Ludvig, but it also showed some value on a Keegan repeat and Corey Conners.

15% SG: TOT on Pete Dye Courses, last three years
20% Total Driving, last 12 months
25% Greens in Regulation %, small greens, last 12 months
10% Birdie or Better %, small greens, last 12 months
15% Par 4 Birdie or Better %, last 12 months
15% SG: Putting on Bent/Poa greens, last two years

Weather

Hot with some storms possible.

The first tee times are at 8:05 am, with the last groups going off at 2:05 pm, so we could see some difference in the waves even with a smallish field.

Thursday afternoon gusts look worse so maybe a slight lean to AM/PM, but no matter what, the afternoon waves are going to be sweaty.

LIV Nashville

I wrote a write-up on the course and event using what info I could find. I bet on three outrights, but I will make you click the article to see them (it’s a free article).

News and Notes

This is very good news on both things. The Memorial being played on Memorial Day weekend is correct, and moving the Canadian Open to the week before the US Open is also right. This is the first bit of golf scheduling news that has pleased me in a long time.

This guy is growing on me, and I’m seriously hoping he’ll play at the Minnesota event of the PGA Tour Americas so I can have an excuse to scoot up to Brainerd and watch him golf.

Once again, I had to look up what the TGL is. There seems to be a ton of lead-up to this, and apparently, there are not actually any events until next January.

Toughest scene possible. You know that fire truck took like 30 minutes to get there and that place is just packed with people watching you lay in the net.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and enjoy the last signature event until next January!

Twitter | YouTube | Website | The Rabbit Hole