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Off the Top

1. Lots of clubbing down again: narrow fairways, plenty of sand and water, and an extra par three this week. 155-player field, top 65 & ties make the cut.

2. A better field than I supposed we’d see with some guys using this as a warm-up event, perhaps? 18 of the top 50 players in the OWGR are in the field

3. Last week in Florida before we head to Texas for the Houston and Valero Opens at Memorial Park and TPC San Antonio.

4. BONUS: We Made it on TV!

As always, a look at the course from Ron’s preview article (free to read)

Copperhead Course at Innisbrook

Sitting on a lovely stretch of property on the Pinellas Peninsula, only minutes from the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa Bay, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par-71 track measuring 7,352 yards. With its extremely tight fairways combined with numerous doglegs and a majority of holes on the longer side, Innisbrook sets up as one of the most demanding courses golfers will play each year. Players hitting less-than-driver off the tee only stretches out the course even further.

Innisbrook demands the ability to hit every type of shot. Said Zach Johnson on the equality of the course, “The beauty of this golf course is that we have seen individuals that hit it left-to-right, right-to-left, maul it and absolutely kill it, and guys that plot their way around. We’ve seen the Furyks win. Sean O’Hair hits it long. Paul Casey is not short. So we have seen every style of golf win here and that’s the beauty of a really good golf course. I feel like it separates and rewards quality golf.”

While the scoring environment may be challenging with the winning score averaging 12-under par over the past dozen years, it is also a fair test of golf. According to anonymous player surveys, it is one of their favorite courses in which to play. Packard explained why he thought this was so: “Copperhead is a tough golf course but it is fair. I designed it so that if you hit a good shot you will be rewarded. There are no gimmicks. I wanted you to have to use every club in your bag.” Scoring is so tough here that it has yielded the second-fewest amount of eagles and the fewest birdies per 72 holes.

Jordan Spieth had this to say on the course in general. “It’s a very difficult golf course. Guys that come out and play well here are likely to play well on the harder courses and the bigger tournaments just because that kind of course suits their game more. You have to work the ball both ways here. It requires all sorts of shots, punch shots, launching it in the air, and obviously some discipline on the greens. It’s tough to hit the fairways and the greens. Greens in regulation will be a very important stat.”

Along with tight fairways and several water hazards, the numerous elevation changes, tricky bunkers, and sloping greens all combine to make Innisbrook a difficult challenge. Though there are six holes with water in play, they are not a huge trouble areas as Innisbrook ranked 37th out of 40 courses in penalty strokes last year.

There are some sizeable elevation changes from tee-to-green, both uphill and downhill. For example, the clubhouse is located on a hill so both the 1st and 10th holes are downhill shots and both the 9th and 18th holes are back up the hill. The undulations make it tough to manage distance control and forces players to hit numerous blind approach shots.

The course also utilizes doglegs on 12 different holes to force players to shape their shots both ways. It even features four “double doglegs,” which is a signature feature of courses designed by Packard. It’s a navigator’s course,” said NBC golf analyst Mark Rolfing. “You cannot overpower the course. It’s all about the angles.”

Grasses this week are the same as last week at TPC Sawgrass. With the Bermuda grass still dormant, fairways and rough are overseeded rye. Greens are overseeded with Poa Trivialis. Although with the warmer temperatures, as March progresses, some of the Bermuda strain will most likely be creeping through. The overseeded rough is 3.75″. Starting in 2023 and continuing this year the intermediate cut of rough around the greens was decreased from 72″ to 21″ to bring the rough closer to the greens.

Betting

Like everyone else, I waited for the tee times before committing to too much here. With the projected winds, there could be a wave advantage of multiple strokes. After times were released, there were some wild reactions in the betting market; we may almost be to the point where there’s some value on the PM/AM guys.

In fact, wind be damned; I’m taking THREE guys that play in the “bad” wave now that prices have adjusted.

Sepp Straka +1800
Corey Conners +2200
Zalatoris +3654
Ben Griffin +7054
Kevin Yu +12500

… and a few thoughts on One and Done after a wild leaderboard last week:

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Copperhead Model

It's a simple one, pretty much looking at ball striking this week for me (you can see the whole thing here). I didn’t weight any putting and stayed away from looking to hard at overall form.

• SG: Ball Striking on less than driver courses over the last two years.

• SG: Tee to Green for rounds played with difficult-to-gain OTT

• Good old simple Greens in Regulation %

• Par three scoring sorting out any rounds where par three scoring was easy

Build your own, or check out the Expert Models at Betsperts Golf. Get 25% off ANY PLAN this week using promo code SNAKEPIT 🐍

Weather

The main topic of discussion so far this week. Thursday afternoon wind, Friday morning wind. The weather can change on a dime, and it’s only Tuesday, so who knows? I will be monitoring this one closely, and it may be a good idea to have some DFS pivots ready or an alternate One and Done pick in the opposite wave, just in case.

I’ll be getting up early on Thursday for sure.

News and Notes

• I have made significantly less betting on him to win.

• Speaking of guys who had better weeks than me:

• God, I hope this doesn’t suck. I grew up watching this movie and will probably see it in the theater.

• Closing with something a tad more serious. This is a good piece by Shane.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and watch out for snakes.

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