This is the last stop before Augusta. One week from now, the conversation shifts entirely to the Masters and everything that comes with it. Hell, as much as I like this place, I wouldn’t mind just fast-forwarding a week.

And of course, with this week comes the chance for someone to play their way into the Masters. It’s happened plenty, and with a bunch of big names either off or having withdrawn, I don’t see why we can’t have it again. Rickie Fowler, Billy Horschel, Tony Finau, and Tom Kim are a few who had empty mailboxes when the invites were sent out. (We’ve loaded everyone who’s in so far into the Rabbit Hole, if you wanted to get a head start on research for next week.)

Brian Harman is back defending after winning in brutal conditions last year with a closing 75 that somehow held up. Looking at the weather for this coming Sunday, we may have something similar.

Ron has the full breakdown of what TPC San Antonio actually demands this week. Here’s what you need to know before you bet anything:

TPC San Antonio

Located north of downtown San Antonio in the Texas Hill Country, TPC San Antonio is a par 72 that stretches to 7,438 yards. It plays slightly longer than average and ranks as the 19th longest course in the annual Tour rotation. The course was designed by Greg Norman, who was consulted during the build by current LIV player Sergio García.

In contrast to many of the more uniform TPC layouts, one of Norman’s goals was to highlight the rugged natural landscape of the property. Sitting at roughly 1,100 feet above sea level, the course is relatively flat, with only about 100 feet of elevation change from its highest to lowest points. It winds through oak trees and features rocky terrain alongside native grasses and vegetation, giving it a distinct and natural feel.

The agronomy team at TPC San Antonio overseeds both the fairways and rough with a mix of 80% Perennial Ryegrass and 20% Chewing Fescue. The rough is expected to play up to three inches this year, compared to roughly 2.25 inches in previous editions. Similar to many courses seen throughout the season, the greens are overseeded with Poa trivialis and typically run between 12 and 12.5 on the Stimpmeter.

With only three water hazards and relatively non penal rough, it may not appear overly difficult on paper, but TPC San Antonio consistently plays as a stern test due to its firm conditions and frequent winds. There are only two non par 5 holes that average under par, and historically the course has produced more double bogeys or worse than every venue except PGA National Resort and TPC Sawgrass.

Success here requires a combination of accuracy off the tee and high level iron play on approach. Even with four par 5s on the scorecard, they represent one of the most difficult sets on Tour. Still, the ability to score on these holes remains one of the few ways for players to separate from the field. Six of the past 11 winners have led the field in par 5 scoring for the week….

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Model

Heavy on approach, since that’s what wins here, but I still used some other ball striking stats as well as smaller amounts of things that help determine the winner here historically.

• Approach (in rounds where SG: APP is difficult)

• Good Drive %

• Around the Green

• Par 5 Birdie or Better rate

• Bogey Avoidance

• 3 years of course history here at TPC San Antonio

• Putting on Poa Triv

See the whole model here

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Weekly Contests!

We will be running weekly Tiers contests (likely more than one for next week) at Splash Sports all season, and would love for you to come take our money.

Top prize is $225 this week, but if we continue to get more and more entries, we can run larger contests and up the prizes. New users get a free $10 after entering their first $10+ contest!

Betting

Almost had three in a row, but Gary was too damn good.

It hurts even worse since he was 7th in my model and was a name that I took a (very quick) peek at when deciding on some outrights. Alas, it’s a tough racket, and we’re back to the grind with four names ahead of the 2nd leg of the Texas mini-swing:

OUTRIGHTS

Ryo Histasune 40/1

Thor Olesen 60/1

Jordan Smith 84/1

Bezuidenhout 90/1

As always, be sure to check on Noonan’s picks if you want a few more to think about.

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How to Watch

TV

Thursday: 4-7 p.m. (Golf Channel)

Friday: 4-7 p.m. (Golf Channel)

Saturday: 1-3:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 3:30-6 p.m. (NBC)

Sunday: 1-2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel), 2:30-6 p.m. (NBC)

Streaming

Thursday: 8:15 a.m.-7 p.m. (ESPN+)

Friday: 8:15 a.m.-7 p.m. (ESPN+)

Saturday: 10:15 a.m.-6 p.m. (ESPN+), 3:30-6 p.m. (Peacock)

Sunday: 10:15 a.m.-6 p.m. (ESPN+), 2:30-6 p.m. (Peacock)

Weather

The PGA didn’t have a nice little forecast available for me this week, so I tried making my own widget. It is a work in progress.

Sunday looks AWFUL, but we have a few days before we get there, and you never know, it could shift away from the city and be nice out. It does appear that there’s a bit of PM/AM wave advantage forming, considering the nastiness forecasted for Friday afternoon, but with the rains to start the tournament, there’s always a chance that we see some delays and the whole thing gets blown up. Proceed with caution.

News and Notes

(this is how they are able to charge $1.50 for sandwiches)

this is good news, in my opinion. Despite some overlap with the NFL playoffs, I do like to get the season started

Don’t forget we actually start the festivities at Augusta today with the ANWA

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and start thinking about getting your work done early for next Thursday and Friday.

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