Off the Top

1. We’re going to see the big dog come out of the bag a ton; there aren’t really spots for players to club down or lay up in Scottsdale. Driving distance is good here, but it’s not the only thing. Plenty of shorter hitters with accuracy and strong iron play have done well here. Ball Strikers paradise anyway you slice it.

2. Not a signature event, but it still has a pretty damn nice field, with 29 of the top 50 in the OWGR attending.

3. Form HAS MATTERED coming in, but so has course history to a degree. Lots of winners have been off the back of a previous high finish here.

A look at the course from Ron’s preview article:

TPC Scottsdale

Sitting at just over 7,200 yards, TPC Scottsdale is a Par-71 layout that trades one par-5 for an additional par-4. While it is average in distance by PGA Tour norms, it tends to play much shorter thanks to an average elevation of over 1,500 feet. The course is the second-highest on Tour, which contributes to the increase in driving distance off the tee and gives the impression that it is a “bombers” paradise.

Though the course is elevated, there is very little change in terrain. The course itself has more of a unique, hybrid style. With a lack of trees, it is not a parkland course. While some holes have a desert backdrop, it is also not a true desert course because it lacks the vast waste areas and natural desert environment of other courses in the Southwest.

With the bermudagrass still dormant, fairways and rough are overseeded with rye and fescue. The rough is short at only two inches. Greens are a majority Poa trivialis with some ryegrass mixed in and are very similar to the greens at the Pete Dye Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, TPC San Antonio, and Harbour Town. The greens are also twice as large as what we saw at Pebble Beach last week at an average of over 7,000 square feet per green and are paced at a 12 on the stimpmeter.

With non-penal rough, reachable par 5s, and huge greens, there aren’t many danger areas to cause players much adversity. Similar to the courses at the American Express, the wind is rarely a concern and players often have a dome-like environment in which to score. Due to an abundance of sunlight and the lack of precipitation in this part of the country, the course typically plays firmer and faster as the week progresses. This can affect players negatively on both fairway rollouts into trouble areas and on approaches to the greens that bounce off the putting surface and onto short grass areas. The other potential danger area is off the tee where five holes have water danger and others have scattered waste areas that can affect wildly errant shots.

Read the Full Article:

Model

We made a deeper (better) model on the betting show earlier today, but I did want to lay out my “simple” model for the week. Nothing but total driving, Approach, and Scrambling. No Fluff.

Monday Qualifier Max McGreevy getting in the top 5 off some smaller sample sizes, but per the norm, Scottie is on top in a class of his own. Dug into a few more models of my own, looked at the expert models on site, and sat down with the stats on a few of the guys I wasn’t 100% sold on to finally whittle my betting card down to six men.

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Betting

Snagged a couple of top 20 winners last week to help with the pain of Aberg having a full second week of the skitters. It felt like a week where I may employ a similar strategy and maybe not bet ANY outrights going up against Scottie on a course that’s perfect for him. Alas, when someone is trading around 3/1 to win, there’s going to be some pretty decent prices in the pool and I just couldn’t resist.

Outrights

Tom Kim +2954
Sahith Theegala +4500
Corey Conners +5348

Top 20s (ties chop)

Luke Clanton +250
Andrew Novak +275
Keith Mitchell +300

I also have a wager for tonight’s TGL match. It’s a later start this week, so plenty of time to get some action down.

And you’ve got some time yet, but we’ve also laid out a few paths to success for One and Done this week:

Weather

Gorgeous, with a bit of a chill in the mornings. Desert golf. The sun will be shining, the breeze light. I wouldn't think it's really a weather-affected week at all.

News and Notes

• He never does anything at majors, but I feel like this is still the correct decision

• I will have a LIV course preview up this week. I think this is the first time I’ve been legitimately excited about one of their events. UNDER THE LIGHTS

• It had been too long since we featured a Justin Ray stat nugget:

• Not one of our articles, but worth a read if you’re into the gear. I had no idea someone spent this much time tracking and talking about the clubs and balls:

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and drink responsibly.

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