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On the precipice of a bunch of signature events in a short amount of time coming up, but this one is still one of my favorites. It’s a fun event with some good chances to go low, but it’s not an easy course, especially the closing two holes.

Also, nothing beats the high of sweating a golf outright on Sunday (except sweating a golf outright on Sunday at a Super Bowl party).

A look at the course from the weekly preview from Ron Klos:

TPC Scottsdale

Measuring just over 7,200 yards, TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 layout that replaces a traditional par-5 with an extra par-4. While it ranks as average in length by PGA Tour standards, the course often plays significantly shorter due to its elevation of more than 1,500 feet above sea level. As the second-highest venue on Tour, the thinner air boosts carry distance off the tee, reinforcing the perception that TPC Scottsdale favors longer hitters.

Despite the elevation, the terrain itself is relatively flat, giving the course a distinct hybrid identity. With few trees, it does not fit the classic parkland mold, yet it also falls short of a true desert course, lacking the expansive waste areas and raw natural landscapes found at other Southwestern venues. Instead, TPC Scottsdale blends elements of both styles, creating a visually unique setting that challenges players in subtler, more strategic ways.

With bermudagrass still dormant this time of year, the fairways and rough at TPC Scottsdale are overseeded with rye and fescue, keeping the rough manageable at just two inches. The greens are predominantly Poa trivialis with a blend of ryegrass, a surface familiar to players from venues such as TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, TPC San Antonio, and Harbour Town. Averaging more than 7,000 square feet, they offer generous targets but still demand precision. Rolled to approximately 12 on the Stimpmeter, the putting surfaces reward confident strokes while placing a premium on solid approach play and distance control.

With non-penal rough, reachable par 5s, and expansive greens, TPC Scottsdale offers relatively few built-in hazards to consistently disrupt scoring. Much like PGA West, wind is rarely a significant factor, creating a dome-like scoring environment that allows players to be aggressive. However, the abundance of sunshine and minimal rainfall typical of the region causes the course to firm up and speed up as the week progresses, subtly increasing the challenge.

Those firmer conditions can work against players off the tee, where added rollout may push drives into trouble, and on approach shots that can bound through greens and into tightly mown collection areas. The primary danger zones remain on the tee, with water in play on five holes and scattered desert waste areas lurking on others, ready to penalize the most errant shots.

READ MORE:

Model

I tend to go back and look at the previous year’s models for inspiration (especially if I’ve done well at a tournament), and I didn’t change a ton of the key stats I wanted to use this week. Metrics I used

• SG: TOT (form over the past year)

• Driving Distance

• Ball Striking

• SG: TOT, last 5 years at TPC Scottsdale (course form)

• Scrambling from the short grass

• Birdie or Better rate

Users can view the entire model on the Rabbit Hole. I also built a simpler look that only incorporates APP, Par 5 play, and spike putting.

Not a member? New Users can save 25% off ANY plan using promo code NEWS26

Think I’m dumb and bad at this? Fair. There are plenty of other expert models to look at each week, right on the homepage:

Betting

Still plugging away, looking for an outright to come home. Congrats to Ron for hitting Rose last week, though. Nice to see someone getting paid. With Scottie in the field, being a two-time winner, and honestly an even better putter than he was when he won those two times, I’m terrified. I will be playing in the “w/o Scheffler” markets like a coward.

Mostly looking for course fit here, again leaning on the core three stats of approach, par 5 scoring, and (hopefully) spike putting ability. These three fit the bill the best when also considering the prices.

All in the W/O Scottie Market

Ben Griffin +2500
Kurt Kitayama +6000
Nicolai Hojgaard +7000

Don’t forget to check out Ryan’s bets as well:

How to Watch 📺

TV:

Thursday: 3:30-7:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)

Friday: 3:30-7:30 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)

Saturday: 12-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel); 3-6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Sunday: 12-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel); 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)

Streaming:

Thursday: ESPN+: 9:15 a.m.-7:30 p.m.

Friday: ESPN+: 9:15 a.m.-7:30 p.m.

Saturday: ESPN+: 11:30-6:30 p.m.

Sunday: ESPN+: 11 a.m.-6 p.m.

Weather

Not terrible for most of the tournament, but there will be some possible windy conditions right off the bat on Thursday. Most sites agree that the wind for the morning crew tomorrow will be a little gusty, but there’s a bit of a lack of consensus on just HOW windy it may get.

Either way, it would see the PM/AM group will have a small to medium advantage.

I hate to send you to what is essentially a competing website, but Roth does such a damn good job breaking down the possible wind, and I respect him as a meteorologist guy:

NEW LEADERBOARD!

Please check out our new in-tournament stats via the leaderboard. This is a FREE FEATURE available to all… for now. We would love to hear your feedback as we continue to roll out this and other new features.

News and Notes

SHANK!

It’s interesting to see the relative comparison now that LIV is going to get OWGR points (like 24 months too late to matter, I would think).

Rory in the top ten for 15 years straight? Still 2+ years of staying healthy and competitive to catch Eldrick.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and drink responsibly.

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