I didn’t get to properly victory lap Michael Brennan 75/1 last week with no golf, so I will do it now. It felt nice, but also messed with my NFL consumption. Glad he won because of the money.

But as is the way in life, we move on and will now reinvest those winnings into a new venture, this time south of the border.

A pretty nice looking course, but easy as hell and big. Big fairways, huge greens, low scores. A better field than in Utah, but still a swing season feel and resort course. Another week where you wanna take “your guys” and maybe work some live bets in if you’re watching.

El Cardonal at Diamante

Named after the tall, multi-armed cactus that thrives in the natural environment on the Baja California peninsula, El Cardonal at Diamante is a par-72 layout that stretches to 7,452 yards from the back tees. When taking into account the annual courses that encompass the Tour schedule, it ranks as the 15th longest. With fairways averaging 60 yards wide, it has the widest landing zones of any course played over the past decade, except the Old Course at St. Andrews. Players can bomb away with the driver on every par 4 and par 5 hole.

The scale of El Cardonal is vast. With many elevated areas and the ocean in view, it seems the course stretches as far as the eye can see. The land drops over 240 feet along the mile stretch of land from the 17th tee to the third fairway. The course sits on a broad landscape dotted with palo verde trees, cacti, and desert flora.

Off the tee, the desert arroyos, native dunes, and well-placed fairway bunkers provide numerous risk-reward options. Somewhat similar to the barrancas found at the Los Angeles Country Club, the site of the 2023 U.S. Open, an arroyo is simply a narrow, steep-sided sandy channel in the ground that is usually dry except after heavy rain. Numerous fairways are routed around these sandy arroyos. With no rough in play this week, and only one hole with a planned water hazard, these arroyos are among the only obstacles for golfers to overcome.

Due in large part to the expansive fairways, there are a variety of angles and options off the tee in strategizing for the best possible approach to the green. Players must decide whether to take on the arroyos and bunkers to set up easier approaches or to play it more conservatively, which results in a longer approach. Over the first two years, the hazards had little effect as Driving Accuracy was a laughable 89.7%. The Good Drive rate was even easier at 94.2%.

The greens are massive, averaging 8,300 square feet, which places them as the second largest on Tour, behind only the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Lag putting will be one of the most important skills for having success this week. Thus far, the 3-putt rate at El Cardonal has been 3.94% which makes it the third-most difficult non-major course for that metric.

The greens here at El Cardonal have their own distinctive flair to them with their different forms and shapes. Examples are the T-shaped 8th green or the three-tiered surface on the 18th hole. Their size and contouring also allow for numerous options for pin positions. Though greens were missed on approach only 21% of the time, the scrambling rate is 5.2% tougher than average at 53.7%.

Looking at agronomy, golfers will see wall-to-wall Platinum paspalum, which is common on resort coastal courses. El Cardonal features seven acres of fairway on turf that normally plays firm and fast due to the dry and windy conditions. Paspalum often produces favorable lies in fairways and other short grass areas and produces a consistent roll on the putting surfaces that will run at a speed of around 11.5 on the stimpmeter. There’s also no rough at El Cardonal, which is not an uncommon omission on resort courses. This lack of rough around the greens will allow for an abundance of options in attempting to navigate the expansive putting surfaces.

El Cardonal weaves through dune-framed fairways on the front nine and over the desert arroyos on the back. The course begins and ends with a gentle handshake with two easy, downhill par 5s that will see plenty of birdies and eagles. Woods always feasted on the par 5s, so it’s no surprise he created four reachable scoring holes.

Betting

While it’s a week for long shots, there are two shorter names I like this week. Not the favorites, but not far from it. Also grabbing some Rosenmueller. Not the strongest putter, but a guy who’s above average OTT and APP and has a some nice finishes in similar fields (T12 at Puntacana). As Noonan mentioned on the podcast this week, it’s a good tournament to save some funds for some live betting into the weekend.

Rico Hoey +2575
Garrick Higgo +2959
Thomas Rosenmueller +15117

For Members: My Stats Model for the WWT

Weather

Just a week in paradise by the looks of it. Sorry if you’re reading this in a colder climate, but it looks to be absolutely gorgeous for this tournament. Highs in the mid-80s with some winds coming off the ocean, but no real reports of heavy gusting predicted for now. It’s a very small sample size, just eight total rounds, but scoring here is about a half stroke lower in the mornings, just food for thought.

News and Notes

The Big One has to be the announcement that LIV Golf will now go to 72 holes, hopefully awarding them OWGR points and letting us finally stop worrying about getting the really good golfers that play on that tour into the correct big events.

This one kind of makes me sad, but once he gets healthy, I may actually pay attention to the Champions Tour if Tiger is playing.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and see you in Bermuda!

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