Tiger Woods is back this week!

(as the designer of the course)

The top-ranked player this week I’m pretty sure is Cam Young Harris English??? Still, for us who follow the tour and look at some of the young or lesser-known players that may be due for a bit of a breakthrough, this field is pretty loaded.

Since it’s swing season, it’s already Wednesday and I don’t have as much to say, here’s an extended excerpt from Ron Klos’ weekly preview. You can find all of his content weekly at BetspertsGolf.com.

El Cardonal at Diamante

Named after the tall, multi-armed cactus that thrives in the natural environment on the Baja California peninsula, El Cardonal at Diamante is a par-72 layout that stretches to 7,452 yards from the back tees. When taking into account the annual courses that encompass the Tour schedule, it ranks as the 15th longest. With fairways averaging 60 yards wide, it has the widest landing zones of any course played over the past decade with the exception of the Old Course at St. Andrews. Players can bomb away with the driver on every par 4 and par 5 hole.

The scale of El Cardonal is vast. With many elevated areas and the ocean in view, it seems the course stretches as far as the eye can see. The land drops over 240 feet along the mile stretch of land from the 17th tee to the third fairway. The course sits on a broad landscape dotted with palo verde trees, cacti, and desert flora.

From a data perspective, it’s important to note that even though we have one year of course history at El Cardonal, there was no ShotLink data. This means that the only information we can make assumptions from are the “old-school” golf metrics like Driving Accuracy and GIR%. That being said, last year it played as the second easiest course on Tour (only behind the Plantation Course at Kapalua) averaging -3.01 strokes per round.

Off the tee, the desert arroyos, native dunes, and well-placed fairway bunkers provide numerous risk-reward options. Somewhat similar to the barrancas found at Los Angeles Country Club, the site of the 2023 U.S. Open, an arroyo is simply a narrow steep-sided sandy channel in the ground that is usually dry except after heavy rain. Numerous fairways are routed around these sandy arroyos. With no rough in play this week, and only one hole with a planned water hazard, these arroyos are among the only obstacles for golfers to overcome.

Due in large part to the expansive fairways, there are a variety of angles and options off the tee in strategizing for the best possible approach to the green. Players must decide whether to take on the arroyos and bunkers to set up easier approaches or to play it more conservatively, which results in a longer approach. Last year, the hazards had little effect as Driving Accuracy was a laughable 90.5%. The Good Drive rate was even more massive at 94.7%.

As Tiger Woods said about El Cardonal, “I set up the golf strategy to make golfers think and make choices. Regardless of your handicap, there are going to be different ways to play every hole. Angles of approach are going to be very important and will dictate the type of shots you should consider. I love this kind of golf.” As you can imagine based on the previous data, the GIR rate of 81.1% is the highest from any course on Tour.

Another potential course defense is the ocean winds that typically blow out of the north but can flip and gust from the south within minutes. Sudden reversals in conditions will provide a challenge to players and caddies alike. Other than some windy conditions on Thursday, light breezes and sunny skies are forecast throughout the event with daytime highs in the low 80s.

The greens are absolutely massive, averaging 8,300 square feet on average, which places them as the second largest on Tour, behind only the Plantation Course at Kapalua. This will bring lag putting into play, and golfers who excel at avoiding three-putts will have an edge on the field. Last year, 3-Putt Avoidance was tougher than average at 3.64%.

The greens here at El Cardonal have their own distinctive flair to them with their different forms and shapes. Examples are the T-shaped 8th green or the three-tiered surface on the 18th hole. Their size and contouring also allow for numerous options for pin positions. Though greens were missed on approach only 19% of the time, the Scrambling rate is tougher than average at 54.7%.

Looking at the turf, golfers will see wall-to-wall Platinum paspalum which is common on resort coastal courses. The course features seven acres of fairway on turf that normally plays firm and fast due to the dry and windy conditions. Paspalum often produces favorable lies in fairways and other short grass areas and produces a consistent roll on the putting surfaces that will run at a speed of around 11.5 on the stimpmeter. There’s also no rough at El Cardonal, which is not an uncommon omission on resort courses. This lack of rough around the greens will allow for an abundance of options in attempting to navigate the expansive putting surfaces.

El Cardonal weaves through dune-framed fairways on the front nine and over the desert arroyos on the back. The course begins and ends with a gentle handshake with two easy, downhill par 5s that will see plenty of birdies and eagles. Woods always feasted on the par 5s so it’s no surprise he created four reachable scoring holes.

After going downhill for Nos. 1 and 2, the short, driveable 351-yard par 4 third hole is on flat ground on the lowest section of the course. It marks the transition point for the uphill climb starting with the 483-yard, par-4 fourth that goes up 30 feet from tee to green. Following that, the 601-yard, par-5 sixth ascends 70 more feet to the green. The course then turns back down the hill at the 489-yard, par-4 seventh. That hole dives 60 feet from tee to green. The roller coaster ride continues with the stretch from the 10th to the 14th involving up-and-down switchbacks on every hole.

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Model

Fairways are wide, missing is not penal and the bunkering won’t be an issue for anyone with tour average length. It’s not exactly bomb and chip due to the length, but bombing it and playing decent with middle irons will likely land you at -20 or better. It's a pretty basic one this week, looking at form, Ball Striking on similar tracks, approach, Scoring, and 3-putt avoidance.

Here’s our top-10:

Check out the full model by using our Rabbit Hole tool for yourself.

Betting

I re-ran my “resort course/shitty field” model with the WWT field and compared it with what we landed on above during the betting show and basically just grabbed the guys that ended up doing well in both models—some familiar names for me.

Ben Griffin +2800

Harry Hall +3500

Keith Mitchell +4000

Neal Shipley +7000

72-Hole Matchup:

Daniel Berger > Michael Kim -120 (DraftKings)

Berger’s floor and ceiling are both quite a bit higher, especially since we’ve seen Kim’s putting let him down big even when the rest of the game comes around a bit. I’d compare this course similarly to Sanderson Farms as far as skills that will help you win/key stats. Berger’s ball striking took him to a nice top ten finish, and I’d expect more of the same here.

For all our takes, check out the betting show. Since it’s the offseason, we got in and out in like 30 minutes this week.

Weather

Thursday Afternoon’s wind looks much worse than Friday’s, so it's a bit of an advantage for the AM/PM group. There is no real shot at any rain, but the wind can be a bit unpredictable, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see heavier gusts this weekend than the current forecast is calling for.

News and Notes

This saga drags on:

Not a ton else going on so here’s a video I watched a bunch of times

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and I hope you like birdies.

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