It's a gorgeous course, with a few fun names at the top of the odds board, and most importantly, evening tee times. While I still watch quite a bit of the swing season golf on Thursday and Friday morning while I work, I do find myself missing most of the Sunday sweats with the NFL taking over. This week affords me a chance to stay up late on Saturday night and take it in (if I have a horse in the race).

Round 1 tee times start at 6:45 local (central) for me, meaning my Friday and Saturday nights are spoken for. If 20-year-old me could see this, I’m not sure what he’d say.

A couple of notes from the PGA’s media stuff:

• The Zozo is the fifth event in the FedExCup Fall and will feature a 78-man field and the only FedExCup Fall event to not have a 36-hole cut.

• The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP is co-sanctioned with the Japan Golf Tour Organization (JGTO) and a total of 14 JGTO members earned entry

• 48 of the 78 players in the field competed at last week's Shriners Children's Open, including six that finished in the top 10: Doug Ghim (2nd), Rico Hoey (T3), K.H. Lee (T5), Harry Hall (T9), Gary Woodland (T9), Kurt Kitayama (T9)

• Four players from each of the 2024 Presidents Cup teams are in the field:

  • United States: Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele

  • International: Min Woo Lee, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama

A look at the course from Ron’s preview:

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club

A par-70 course that measures just past 7,000 yards, Narashino CC is on the shorter end of the length spectrum. It will play longer than its yardage, however, due to its layout and the typically cooler and wetter conditions. As mentioned above, the tree-lined fairways are similar to Colonial Country Club and are very thick, making it near impossible for players to cut corners on the numerous doglegs. Nevertheless, with the fairways not getting much rollout along with some very long par-4s, there are more drivers used off the tee than one would predict.

For the most part, this is a positional golf course where players try to keep their ball on the correct side of the fairway for the best angle of attack into the smaller-than-average greens. With the course playing around even par (17th toughest), birdies will come at a premium.

Along with the bentgrass greens, Narashino CC features Zoysia fairways and rough. While there are only a few PGA Tour courses that feature Zoysia, it is known for being firm and having a “bouncy” nature. It also tends to sit higher on the grass and doesn’t get buried as much as other types of rough. And with the rough being cut at only two inches, players don’t seem to have much trouble in attacking these greens when missing the fairway. It is the trees and strategically placed fairway bunkers that give the most problems.

This week’s tournament will take place on a composite course using holes from the club’s King and Queen courses. It has a very unique layout design and should provide a decent test for players. One of the ways it is different from normal PGA Tour courses is the hole breakdown. Typically, Par 70 courses have only four Par 3s, two Par 5s, and 12 Par 4s. This course has five Par 3s, three Par 5s, and only 10 Par 4s.

The oddities do not stop there. As you can see on the course scorecard above, there are five Par 4s at 486 yards or longer and five more at 425 yards or shorter. The five long Par 4s will require a longer iron into the greens and are five of the six toughest holes on the course playing to a 4.22 scoring average. The shorter Par 4s, with wedges in hand on approach, include some of the best birdie opportunities and have a 3.96 scoring average. While the Par 5 14th hole measures 608 yards and is one of the toughest Par 5s on Tour, the other two Par 5s have a birdie or better rate of 46.4%.

Model

With a very small sample and no shotlink data, this is a tough one to get a hold of, but we tried as always. Noonan and I built out a rabbit hole model on Tuesday’s show using what we thought mattered and could be predictive

• Long-term form: SG: TOT, last two years

• Short-term form: ‘24 Swing season only SG: TOT

• Good Drive %

• Distance from the edge of the fairway on drives

• SG: Approach

• SG: Putting

Some interesting names at the top, including a couple that I had already made my mind up to bet, which is always nice. Despite not getting any sort of bump for the recent form, Xander and Morikawa still show up very high being the class of this field.

If you want to see the entire model, check out other expert models, or build your own, head on over to BetspertsGolf.com, you can use promo code NEWSLETTER for 25% off a monthly sub.

Betting

Outrights:

Kurt Kitayama +2200
Doug Ghim +4500
Ben Griffin +9000

72-hole Matchup Bet":

Beau Hossler > Si Woo Kim -105 (Fanduel)

Even without his form, I would have made Hossler a favorite here. Matchups are a bit funny when you compare them with outrights. I’m willing to take a long shot on someone with bad long-term putting numbers and try to get a big price home with some variance on the greens. With a matchup bet, I value steady, consistent play much more, and I don’t need the high ceiling. Hossler’s short game and GIR% have been very solid, while Si Woo’s have trended in the other direction.

Weather

Lots of trees make me think the winds shouldn’t matter as much, but we will see some higher winds in the afternoons early in the tourney, along with some rain chances. It shouldn’t be anything like last week’s gale-forced delays.

News and Notes

Not a ton going on this time of year, so here’s the tee times and a TGL schedule (choose a team to root for, you have a couple months).

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and 幸運を

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