The Open: Betting Card

Matchups, Positional Bets, Cuts & Props

Author

Andy Molitor
July 17, 2024

Spent some time on the course yesterday, and as always, feel free to check out all the content we put out each week:

My Troon Model

I am still not dissuaded from my original thesis. If the winds aren’t too gusty, there will be some holes where distance will help out massively, but for the most part, I just need accurate ball-strikers on my team this week.

Put together my outright card in yesterday’s newsletter and won’t be adding to that, but I do have a few bets I like in the matchup and placement markets.

Betting Card

Outrights from yesterday:

Morikawa +1800
Tom Kim +4500
Aaron Rai +7000
Cam Young +7500
Alex Noren +11000
ZalatorisBomb +25000

The Rest of the Card

Two tourney matchups and some placements/props:

Hideki Matsuyama -1.5 > Min Woo Lee +104

Adam Scott > Joaquin Niemann +115

Xander Top 10 +140

Brooks Top 20 +185

Aaron Rai Top 30 +115

Tom McKibbin Top 40 +170

J.T. Poston Top 40 +190

Tom Hoge Top 40 +200

Winning Score under 274 -130

Hole in one during round two +300

Dustin Johnson Misses Cut -105

Jon Rahm Misses Cut +350

didn’t do a cut parlay yet since I’m horrid at them, but it’s still in the cards if I stay up late tonight. By all means share yours with us on Twitter

Weather

Did a bit more of a breakdown this week since it’s more vital, considering the wind is the biggest defense.

TL;DR: Thursday looks gross no matter when you play. There may be a PM/AM wave advantage, with Friday morning a little lighter. Weekend seems nice, but it’s Wednesday.

Thursday, Round 1

Looks kind of gross all day. Certainly going to get wet but the winds will be rough for most of the playable part of the day. Gusts in the middle of the day 25-30 very possible.

Friday, Round 2

No precipitation, but the afternoon winds will kick up hard again. Guys with really early tee times (Alex Noren, Nicolai Højgaard

Saturday, Round 3

For Now* the winds appear to be lighter on both of the weekend weather reports, but as we know things on the coast can change quickly. Looking like chances of rain for a good portion of the day, and if that gets stronger and turns into a bit more of a storm, the winds can increase quickly.

Sunday, Final Round

Similar to Saturday minus the rain, but I also don’t trust a report this far out when you’re sitting this close to the Firth of Clyde!

News and Notes

Had it in my head that it was a two-man runaway last time, but I had forgotten just how big it was.

Love old shots of the majors like this. Honestly seems Way more chill than the range.

….and the TV schedule, where you will be forced to find USA maybe? I think you should be able to just stay on Peacock the whole time, but I’ve been wrong before.

As always, bet responsibly, have fun, and set your alarm. If you want to check out some of the premium stuff at Betsperts Golf, I’ve got three ways to do it on the cheap⬇⬇⬇

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